The Super Two cutoff for the upcoming arbitration class is going to be around two years and 130 days, per the calculations of MLBTR contributor Ethan Hullihen, as of July 31. Notable transactions in August or September could alter that number slightly. The official number won’t be finalized by the league until the season is complete.
As a refresher, players automatically qualify for arbitration when they have at least three years of service time and don’t already have a guaranteed contract. For players who finish a season between two and three years, the top 22% of players in terms of service time also qualify, as long as they spent at least 86 days of the most recent season on the active roster or injured list. The cutoff will vary slightly from year to year, depending on the details of the players in the 2-3 window. Looking at previous years, the recent cutoffs have been as low as 2.115 and as high as 2.146:
2025: 2.140
2024: 2.132
2023: 2.118
2022: 2.128
2021: 2.116
2020: 2.125
2019: 2.115
2018: 2.134
2017: 2.123
2016: 2.131
2015: 2.130
2014: 2.133
2013: 2.122
2012: 2.140
2011: 2.146
2010: 2.122
2009: 2.139
The exact placement can be notable for a player’s earning power, as Super Two qualification means a player can get four arbitration raises instead of the standard three. Assuming the 2.130 line holds, guys like Rico Garcia (projected to finish this year at 2.130), Tyron Guerrero (2.133) and Quinn Priester (2.134) will just make it, while players like Randy Vásquez (2.129), Riley O’Brien (2.129) and Drey Jameson (2.126) will just miss.
It’s possible that the next collective bargaining agreement impacts the future of arbitration while the expected winter lockout could directly impact this class. The current CBA expires December 1 with a lockout widely expected. In a normal offseason, teams have until late November to decide whether or not to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. For players without deals in place, January is the deadline for exchanging arbitration figures, then hearings take place in February. In the 2021-22 offseason, a new CBA wasn’t reached until March 10. Once that lockout ended, March 22 was quickly set as that year’s filing deadline. Hearings took place during the season.
When the salary arbitration system began in the 1973-1975 CBA, it was for all players with at least two years of service time. It was pushed to three years in the 1985-1989 CBA. In the 1990-1993 CBA, Super Two designation was given to 17% of players in the 2-3 window. The 2012-2016 CBA pushed that 17% threshold to 22%. In the last round of CBA talks, the MLBPA tried to get back to all two-year players qualifying for arbitration but eventually backed off that stance as the negotiations played out. The 22% threshold carried into the current CBA. In May of this year, the MLBPA’s initial proposal for the next CBA featured a jump to 44%.
Hullihen also projected the next qualifying offer to be $23.1MM back in June. That projection has not changed in the intervening months.
