Poll: Checking In On The NL Rookie Of The Year Race

Earlier this month, I wrote about the candidates for the NL MVP and AL Cy Young awards. I picked those races because they’re especially close right now. In contrast, there is a clear front-runner for both the AL MVP (Yordan Alvarez) and NL Cy Young (Jacob Misiorowski). So, I hope you’ll forgive me if I skip those check-ins and move on to what might be the closest major awards race of them all: NL Rookie of the Year.

Two rookies made the NL All-Star team this summer. One of them, Foster Griffin, is now pitching in the American League; the Nationals traded him to the Guardians at the deadline. The other was Sal Stewart. The Reds infielder leads NL rookies with 27 home runs. No one else has reached 20. Even more impressive are his MLB-leading 98 runs batted in. It’s rare enough for a 22-year-old to lead the league in RBI, let alone a 22-year-old on one of the worst offensive teams in the majors. 

In addition to his power, Stewart is 12-for-16 on the bases, despite well-below-average sprint speed. And while first base is his primary position, his versatility has been an asset for the Reds. He’s played a good amount of third base and a handful of games at second with perfectly acceptable defensive metrics. Stewart has slugged his way into this conversation, but he’s more than just a power bat.

The All-Star appearance, along with all those RBI, could help Stewart sway voters. He certainly has a compelling case. Yet, the NL rookie with the best overall offensive numbers might actually be Carson Benge of the Mets. Benge only has 16 homers to Stewart’s 27 and 17 doubles to Stewart’s 24. However, Benge runs better than Stewart, and he has the edge in stolen bases and triples. Overall, the two have similar triple slash lines. Stewart has a 43-point lead in OPS, but wRC+, which is park-adjusted and doesn’t weigh slugging numbers quite as heavily, gives a one-tick advantage to Benge. Add Benge’s superior baserunning into the equation, and that advantage increases. Sources like FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and Baseball Savant all suggest Benge has been the more productive offensive player.

The 23-year-old has also helped his case on the other side of the ball. His average arm strength is tied for fifth among outfielders, and just last week, he let loose a 103.9-mph bullet – the hardest recorded throw by any player all season. Unsurprisingly, Benge ranks among the league leaders in outfield assists, Statcast throwing runs, and the arm component of Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). He may not lead the league in any major categories, but he’s made an impact in so many different ways. As great as Stewart has been, Benge is the more complete player. The versions of WAR from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference agree. Benge holds about a one-win edge over Stewart in each metric. 

Unfortunately for both of them, there’s one more NL rookie who might fit that “complete package” description even better. The Cardinals’ JJ Wetherholt leads NL rookies with 87 runs scored. His .724 OPS and 107 wRC+ aren’t quite as impressive as Benge’s or Stewart’s figures, but for what it’s worth, Wetherholt is beating them both in xwOBA and Win Probability Added. His combination of plate discipline, bat-to-ball skills, and quality of contact has been as good as any NL rookie’s, and he has consistently come through for the Cardinals in the biggest moments. 

For voters who might be swayed by a high ceiling or clutch performance, there’s a case for Wetherholt based on offense alone. But his offense doesn’t stand alone. If anything, his bat has been overshadowed by otherworldly defensive metrics. Wetherholt leads second basemen in assists and double plays started. He is the only full-time middle infielder who has yet to make a fielding error this year (although he’s made a couple of errors with his arm). With superb range and poise, he has compiled 14 DRS and 22 Outs Above Average (OAA). 

According to FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs Above Average (Def) and Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (FRV), Wetherholt has been the second most valuable defender in the National League, behind only Pete Crow-Armstrong. The 23-year-old has provided well-above-average value with his hitting and baserunning, but the FanGraphs and Statcast numbers say his glove has been more than twice as productive as his bat and legs combined. With 4.5 fWAR and 4.9 bWAR, his lead over Benge in both metrics is even bigger than Benge’s lead over Stewart.  

Wetherholt has the Gold Glove-caliber defense. Stewart has the home runs and the RBI. Benge has outhit the former and out-fielded the latter. A comprehensive statistic like WAR points to Wetherholt as the clear choice. Yet, it isn’t uncommon for award voters to weigh offense more heavily than defense, or to weigh home runs and RBI more heavily than most other offensive stats. To further complicate the conversation, Wetherholt has been slumping in the second half, while Benge has recently caught fire. 

Then there’s Nolan McLean of it all. With a trio of exciting position player candidates, it can be easy to forget about a guy who won’t show up on any of the same leaderboards. However, McLean and his 3.21 ERA certainly belong in this discussion. The 25-year-old has been a reliable workhorse all year, and like his teammate Benge, he has been especially dominant lately. The righty owns a sub-2.00 ERA over his last 10 starts. In all but one of those outings, he pitched at least six innings with no more than two earned runs allowed. 

On the season, McLean ranks among the top 10 NL starters, not just rookies, in innings pitched. He’s in the top five in strikeouts. Only three NL arms have made more quality starts: Sandy Alcantara, Cristopher Sánchez, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. McLean isn’t without his flaws. He walks more batters than he’d like to, and his groundball rate isn’t as high as it could be. Accordingly, his xERA and SIERA are about half a run higher than his ERA. Still, his durability and diverse arsenal have him well on his way to a three-win season. That puts him somewhere in between Benge and Stewart by both versions of WAR.

As things stand, I could see all four of Stewart, Benge, Wetherholt, and McLean receiving first-place votes. I could also see any of them falling into a slump that takes them out of the race – or going on a red-hot run that pushes the others out of contention. So, I want to know what MLBTR readers are thinking. Who do you think will win the NL Rookie of the Year? And is that different from who you think should win? Have your say in the polls below.

Images courtesy of Katie Stratman, Albert Cesare, Wendell Cruz, Jeff Curry, Dale Zanine (Imagn Images, via Reuters Connect).