The Twins received an “F” grade from MLBTR readers during our Offseason in Review series. The fact that only 42% of voters deemed the winter a complete failure might have been an upset. Minnesota’s biggest developments of the offseason were the unexpected departure of president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, Pablo Lopez‘s elbow surgery, and … Josh Bell. With 39% of voters giving the Twins a “D” grade, it’s clear the general consensus was that the Twins would not be walking at graduation.
Minnesota’s first five games went as expected. But after a 1-4 start, the club found some momentum. The Twins swept the division rival Tigers in a four-game set. They took series from the Red Sox and Blue Jays. The team dropped a game to the Mets last night to fall back to an even .500, but they’re still tied with Detroit for the 2nd-best run differential in the American League.
A 12-12 record certainly isn’t anything to write home about, but the beginning of the campaign has gone about as well as Minnesota could’ve hoped for, given minimal investment in the club heading into the year. The Twins’ $107MM payroll is down nearly $30MM from 2025. Here’s a look at some of the moves that have spurred Minnesota so far, plus what it could mean when the trade deadline rolls around…
Taj Bradley, reliable starter
The Twins landed Bradley as part of the mass bullpen selloff at the 2025 trade deadline. He came over from the Rays in a straight-up swap for reliever Griffin Jax. It’s been a clear win for Minnesota up to this point, particularly with Jax falling out of the high-leverage mix in Tampa Bay. Bradley has a crisp 1.63 ERA through five starts. He’s boosted his strikeout rate to a career-best 28.8% in large part due to an improved splitter. Bradley’s top swing-and-miss pitch has nearly three additional inches of vertical drop this year. The splitter has generated an elite 43.8% whiff rate.
Bradley isn’t going to maintain a sub-2.00 ERA all season. The right-hander’s xFIP and SIERA are nearly two runs higher than his actual ERA. He’s getting ground balls at a career-low 34.7% clip, while allowing a significant level of hard contact (93.6 mph average exit velocity – 2nd percentile). Given Bradley’s previous struggles with the home run ball, that’ll be worth monitoring as the weather gets warmer and the ball starts traveling. Even if Bradley is a mid-3.00s ERA starter with above-average strikeout stuff, that’s a major boon for a Minnesota rotation without many trustworthy options beyond Joe Ryan.
Mick Abel, backend starter (when healthy)
Speaking of the pitching staff, Abel was emerging as a fixture before going down with elbow inflammation. It’s not expected to be an extended absence, but it was a disappointing diagnosis following back-to-back scoreless outings for the young righty. Abel came over as part of the package from Philadelphia for closer Jhoan Duran. He scuffled in his first two appearances (one in long relief), then shut down the Tigers and Red Sox over 13 frames.
Abel and Bradley both struggled in their initial stints with the Twins last year. It seemed like a leap of faith to expect either one to be a positive contributor in 2026, and Minnesota was relying on both of them. The club didn’t add to the rotation after the Lopez injury, leaving Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Simeon Woods Richardson as the top options, along with the two young righties. Any crack in the group would be a problem, but Minnesota’s starters rank ninth in ERA right now.
Taylor Rogers, experienced setup man
Rogers’ return was Minnesota’s only major-league signing on the pitching side. The Twins grabbed him on a cheap $2MM agreement. He joined a bullpen lacking proven arms after the group was completely cleared out in July, with five core pieces heading out in various trades. Rogers coughed up the lead last night against New York, but he’d been solid before the outing. The veteran lefty has secured three holds and has generally been effective in high-leverage situations. Heading into Wednesday, Rogers had only been scored upon in two games, both of which were with Minnesota facing a deficit.
Josh Bell, hot streak extraordinaire
Bell will have a three-week stretch every season where he looks like an MVP candidate. It may have already happened for 2026. Bell had three hits in the final game of the sweep against the Tigers, pushing his OPS to 1.066 through 13 games. He’s cooled off from there, but it’s still a solid 116 wRC+ across 96 plate appearances. The Twins added Bell on a one-year, $7MM deal. He’s provided a nice boost to an offense that ranks in the top 10 in scoring. The Victor Caratini signing (two years, $14MM) hasn’t worked out as well, but adding a pair of veteran switch-hitters has given the lineup a bit more flexibility.
Will it matter?
This probably isn’t a roster headed toward an AL pennant run. It’s probably not even a squad equipped to end Minnesota’s three-year playoff drought. The key will be whether the Twins are competitive enough not to be sellers at the trade deadline. Ryan would be among the prizes in July, assuming Minnesota is once again open for business. Could a couple more months of .500 ball be enough to convince ownership this team can compete in an uninspiring AL Central? The early returns have been fairly positive despite a tepid offseason.
Photo courtesy of John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images
