It’s difficult to find an area that hasn’t been affected by climate change, which, among other things, is behind the increased frequency and intensity of heat waves worldwide. Sport is no exception, and competitions like the Winter Olympics and major cycling tours have been — or will be — seriously affected by global warming. The most-watched sporting event on the planet, the FIFA Men’s World Cup, being held in North America and starting in less than a month, will also be impacted by this crisis.
A study by scientists at World Weather Attribution (WWA) warns that around 25% of the World Cup matches to be played — 26 of the 104 scheduled — will likely take place in conditions that pose a risk to the health of the players and, in some cases, even to the fans attending the stadiums. The researchers, led by Frederick Otto and Theodore Keeping of Imperial College London, used historical temperature data and other meteorological variables to determine whether safe conditions would be exceeded at the time each match was scheduled to take place.
In 26 of those scheduled matches, the scientists determined that temperatures are likely to exceed 26 degrees Celsius WBGT during the course of the game. WBGT stands for Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, a unit commonly used in the sports world to measure heat stress on the human body. It takes into account not only air temperature but also humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed. The study estimates that five matches will exceed 28 degrees Celsius WBGT, the equivalent of 38 degrees Celsius in dry heat or 30 degrees Celsius in high humidity, Otto explains.
The authors performed the same risk calculation for 1994, when the World Cup was held in the United States, at the same venues and times of year. They conclude that the “risk of these more extreme conditions has almost doubled” due to “climate change” caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels. “In 1994, the climate was approximately 0.7 degrees cooler than it is now,” notes Joyce Kimutai, another researcher who participated in the analysis.
The venues, dates, and times for the three group stage matches of the 48 qualified teams have been confirmed. The matches will be played in various cities across Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Data from the study indicates that Portugal will face the worst heat, with an 80% probability of temperatures exceeding 26 degrees Celsius in all three of its group stage matches. The Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde follow (all with a 74% probability).
In the case of Spain, two of its matches — those held in Atlanta (USA) — carry a 23% probability of exceeding 26 degrees, and in the third, in Guadalajara (Mexico), the possibility is practically zero.
Reining champion Argentina will have it a bit worse. In one of their matches (June 22, in Dallas at 1:00 p.m.) there is a 100% chance of temperatures exceeding 26 degrees Celsius and a 22% chance of exceeding 28 degrees Celsius. In Argentina’s other two matches, the risk of exceeding 26 degrees Celsius is 14% and 24%, respectively.
Professor Otto explains that, to determine the risk thresholds, they relied on the recommendations of the main international players’ union, FIFPRO (International Federation of Professional Footballers). “The union suggests that a temperature of 26 degrees WBGT is quite dangerous and that playing in these conditions would require cooling breaks.” He adds, “28 degrees is objectively dangerous, and the players’ union suggests that matches should be postponed.” But it’s not only dangerous for the players. “There are also the fans, who may gather outdoors beforehand and are at even greater risk because they won’t be supervised,” Otto warns.
In the case of the Colombian national team, only one of its three group stage matches carries a risk (a 40% chance for the June 27 match in Miami). Furthermore, the stadium where it will be played lacks cooling measures, such as air conditioning. Uruguay, for example, plays two of its three matches in the same venue, with a 100% probability of temperatures exceeding 26 degrees WBGT.
On the other hand, there are 13 teams that will play their three matches with less than a 5% probability of temperatures exceeding 26 degrees Celsius. Among them are the three host nations: Mexico, the United States, and Canada.
Given the expected temperatures, this will be the first World Cup to implement cooling breaks in every match — regardless of the weather forecast for each location and day — during each half. This measure has also drawn some criticism. The previous World Cup, held in Qatar in 2022, had to be played between November and December due to the high summer temperatures in the region. “We will probably see more World Cups scheduled during the winter months, as we saw in Qatar in 2022, or held in cooler climates like Northern Europe,” predicts Donal Mullan, a researcher at Queen’s University Belfast, who a year and a half ago published another study focusing on temperatures during the 2026 World Cup.
Theodore Keeping notes that of the 16 designated venues, three will be particularly affected according to his calculations: Houston, Dallas, and Atlanta, all in the United States. In this case, all three venues have air conditioning, which will somewhat reduce the risk.
Once the group stage is over, the knockout phase will begin, where the risk of heat stress will remain. The final is scheduled for July 19 in New York at 3:00 p.m. According to the WWA study, there is a 12% chance that the dangerous temperature of 26 degrees Celsius will be exceeded. And “a one in 37 chance that the 28-degree threshold will be surpassed in that match, the dangerous conditions that, according to the players’ union, should cause a delay in the game,” Keeping points out. At the 1994 World Cup, that chance was one in 56.
Controversial breaks and schedules
FIFA has decreed that, for the first time in history, there will be a three-minute break at the midway point of each half — approximately at the 22nd and 67th minutes, respectively — in all matches, regardless of temperature, time of day, venue, or whether the stadium is covered or air-conditioned. The widespread implementation of hydration breaks has not been without controversy.
Initially, criticism focused on the possibility that the risk could be reduced if matches were scheduled for the evenings, when temperatures drop. However, playing matches during the hottest hours is necessary to accommodate international broadcast schedules: matches played in the evenings in the Americas, which will also take place, will be broadcast in the middle of the night in Europe, where the most valuable audience for television networks is located. Given the value of the World Cup broadcasting rights — it is estimated that FIFA will pocket $3.9 billion from this alone — the option of eliminating prime time was never considered. In fact, the opening match and the final will be played at 1:00 p.m. in Mexico and 3:00 p.m. in New York (9:00 p.m. CEST), respectively, times when the heat reaches its daily peak.
Therefore, some believe the decision to implement hydration breaks across the board may be related to economic reasons. These six minutes of broadcast time also constitute a new commercial break with a very high audience, presumably larger than during the 15-minute halftime break. The price of advertising space will vary enormously depending on the match, but the highest estimates for a 30-second ad are around $585,000 for the final, presumably during one of the hydration breaks.
Beyond the motivations, the fact remains that the breaks will impact the flow of the matches. Critics believe the pauses will disrupt the rhythm of the game. Other analysts, however, believe they will be a good opportunity for coaches to make tactical adjustments.
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