Adam Chernoff’s CFL picks: Ottawa Redblacks disrespect has gone too far

Photo: Gord Weber/3DownNation. All rights reserved.

Ottawa Redblacks +7.5 versus Winnipeg Blue Bombers

I do not want to make this look like I am grandstanding and defending the Ottawa Redblacks. This is not a good football team, and their coach, Ryan Dinwiddie, is in over his head. There is no future for this team in this state.

However, the disrespect has gone too far.

Power ratings and votes across the league have turned into standings. Naturally, at 0-8 on the season with a -103 point differential, the Redblacks are unanimously spoken about as the worst team in the league.

I am not at that level. I want to give Ottawa some, albeit just a minimal amount, of the benefit of the doubt.

To date, the team has played: Montreal, the best team in the league, twice; Saskatchewan, the second-best team in the league, twice; Edmonton, the third-best team in the league, twice, as part of their eight-game schedule.

No team has had it more difficult or faced a more daunting schedule than Ottawa, and it is not even close. That is an impossible run of teams to get anything right against, especially given all the roster and coaching turnover this team experienced coming into the season.

Winnipeg, by comparison, has avoided playing Montreal and Saskatchewan, and faced Edmonton early in the season. No team has had an easier all-around schedule, and they have underwhelmed too. Three of their four wins have come by two points or fewer, two of which were against backup quarterbacks. Winnipeg is a net -0.6 yards per play, and with Zach Collaros rank dead last in the league in explosive plays per game.

With this spread at +7.5, I think it is worth pointing out that the two biggest point spreads of the season were Montreal -10 at home facing Hamilton, starting Tre Ford, and Saskatchewan -8.5 at home facing Hamilton, starting Jake Dolegala.

Those are the two clear elite teams in the league against helpless backup quarterbacks. My disagreement with this number at -7.5 is that the Blue Bombers are not in the same tier of opponent as those two teams. The Redblacks, as bad as they are, are still starting their main guys. This is too high.

Give me the Redblacks as dogs here.

Under 56.5 in Saskatchewan Roughriders at Hamilton Tiger Cats

This is a pretty straightforward bet. I am looking at a league-average total with a well-below-average offence playing a very injured one.

Hamilton does not have a quarterback capable of running a high-scoring professional offence. Last week with Harrison Frost, the result was highly misleading against B.C. The Tiger-Cats scored 24 points, but generated just 5.9 yards per play on offence. This came against a Lions secondary allowing opponents to complete a league-worst 73 percent of passes. Two of the three scoring drives came after long kick returns or a turnover to set up a short field. The inaccuracy and frequent two-and-outs were disguised. This is not an offence that can sustain long drives and score consistently.

Saskatchewan is missing multiple starting receivers and their starting running back. Trevor Harris played out of his mind last week against Ottawa, and unfortunately played second fiddle in the CFL media to Tommy Stevens. I am anti-Stevens — that’s an article for another time — but the Roughriders are making him part of their identity. I understand why fans like him, but the more snaps Stevens gets, the more inefficient the Roughriders offence becomes. With Stevens, the Roughriders are averaging 3.5 yards per play less on non-goal line carries.

This makes me want to bet the under in Roughriders games because they are leaning on him more and more, especially in games when the score is in their favour. Up multiple scores last week against Ottawa with four minutes to play, Stevens got the full drive, as well as extra snaps earlier in the quarter. The same happened in Week 9 against Edmonton. Earlier in the season against Hamilton, up multiple scores, he started seeing snaps with 10 minutes to go in the fourth quarter.

Leaning on Stevens and a less efficient offence will burn the Riders at some point this season. Until then, they appear content to keep using him to close games and wind the clock. With all of the injuries, this is not the Riders offence that has been gaining 7.5 yards per play this season, and shouldn’t be priced in the high 50s for their totals.

Season record: 13-6 (+6.75x)

Adam Chernoff has been betting on sports and bookmaking for the past 17 years. While he is known across the industry for NFL expertise, he bets on CFL from his home in Saskatoon during the summer.