AJ Dybantsa’s Decision Proves NIL Still Can’t Compete With NBA Money

This comes as no surprise to anyone with a brain, as Kalshi’s markets show that Dybantsa has a 75% chance of being taken first overall at the draft this June. 

Last year’s first overall pick, Cooper Flagg, signed a four-year deal, totaling $62-million, the highest in NBA history up until this point. This number will only be higher in 2026, so Dybantsa will likely be making over $15 million in his rookie year if he’s taken with the top selection.

During his time at BYU, it was rumored that Dybantsa had NIL packages totaling over $7 million, one of the highest in the short history of NIL. If he returned for a sophomore season, he would’ve had a chance to improve on that, but would still likely be making a good chunk less than any NBA contract, before even considering additional brand deals.

Dybantsa had joked before that his mom was going to make him stay in college for four years to earn his degree, but generational wealth can definitely change that mindset. Moreso, I’m kinda over top draft picks pretending like they’re actually going to come back for a second year of college basketball.

I’m sure most of these guys had the time of their lives at college. Being the king of the campus, where the red carpet is always laid out for you, has to be awesome at 18 or 19, but what’s even cooler than that is millions of dollars and not having to go to college classes.

Of course, people try to argue that NIL could offset those lost years, not making NBA money, but those people have a fundamental misunderstanding of NBA contracts. The younger you are, the more money you can make in the NBA. Of course, injuries and players struggling to adjust to the NBA level can prevent that from occurring, but the statement is true for most cases.

If a young, top draft pick even shows flashes of All-Star potential, teams are kind of forced into paying these guys max contracts as early as possible. At just 23 years old, guys can be making $40+ million if they leave college after their rookie seasons. If these players continue to blossom and have productive, long NBA careers, the number of max deals they can sign increases over time.

A player that sticks around for four college seasons wouldn’t reach a max deal until their 26 or 27. One-and-done athletes will be looking at their second max deal at that same point. It’s financially irresponsible for kids to turn down this level of wealth just to play a little bit more college hoops.

Also, being the big man on campus at BYU can’t even be that great. I could understand why a guy from Wisconsin or Arizona State might want to stick around college, but being an NBA superstar has to be cooler than being a BYU superstar. Quit pretending you’re going back to college; these guys are never turning down NBA money.