The Astros have “strong interest in” Rockies outfielders Mickey Moniak and Jake McCarthy, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. In even more notable trade deadline news, Nightengale writes that the Astros “also plan to be in the Tarik Skubal and Sonny Gray sweepstakes.”
While Houston is still only 44-47, that record breaks down as an ugly 17-28 mark in the team’s first 45 games and then a much more solid 27-19 mark since mid-May. The crowded nature of the AL standings means that the Astros are just 2.5 games back of the Mariners for first place in the AL West and two games out of a wild card slot. Even as far back as June 12, the Astros still had their eyes on being deadline buyers, with GM Dana Brown saying that the club was looking to bolster its outfield and bullpen ranks.
The rotation was notably not as high a priority, as Brown said the impending returns of Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier from the injured list would help the starting pitching depth. Javier was just activated a couple of days ago and moved to a relief role, as on paper, the Astros have a rotation surplus with Brown, Tatsuya Imai, Spencer Arrighetti, Peter Lambert, and Mike Burrows all healthy.
Of course, there are enough question marks within that group that the Astros could still easily justify adding another starter, particularly a frontline upgrade like Skubal or Gray. It makes sense that the Astros would at least check in on this duo and any other starters available, out of due diligence if nothing else.
If the Tigers do decide to move Skubal, it will take a lot for the Astros to outbid other suitors, and Houston doesn’t have a particularly deep farm system. Gray also figures to be a popular trade candidate, but since Gray has a no-trade clause, he has more leverage than the Red Sox themselves in finding an acceptable deal. Gray has said he would be open to waiving his clause in the right circumstance, but it isn’t clear if he would approve a trade to Houston in particular.
There are fewer obstacles to a deal for Moniak or McCarthy, apart from the fact that plenty of other outfield-needy teams besides the Astros will be calling the Rockies about a potential swap. Moniak is hitting .282/.333/.612 with 15 home runs in 204 plate appearances this season, as the former first overall pick has continued his later-bloomer breakout in his second year with Colorado. McCarthy is also enjoying a revival in Denver, as the former Diamondbacks regular is hitting .307/.344/.518 with nine home runs over 273 PA since being traded from Arizona to Colorado back in January.
As with all Rockies players, the Coors Field effect must be considered. McCarthy is hitting better at home (.941 OPS) than on the road (.767 OPS) but his away numbers are still respectable. The left-handed hitting McCarthy is also actually hitting better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers, resulting in roughly even career splits. Moniak, on the other hand, has been dominant at home and against right-handed pitchers, but dismal on the road (.689 OPS) and against southpaws (.575 OPS).
McCarthy is a little under a year older than Moniak, but McCarthy is arbitration-controlled through 2028, whereas Moniak is only controlled through 2027. McCarthy is faster and the better defender of the two, though McCarthy is about an average fielder at all three outfield slots. Looking at the Statcast metrics, neither player has walked much and McCarthy has made a lot more contact than Moniak, but Moniak’s contact has been far more damaging to opposing pitchers.
Flaws notwithstanding, Moniak or McCarthy may still represent a solid upgrade over the Astros’ current outfield mix. Everyday right fielder Cam Smith has only an 88 wRC+, and the other outfield slots have been a revolving door to some extent, especially now that regular center fielder Jake Meyers was optioned to Triple-A. Taylor Trammell and Brice Matthews are slated to handle center field duties in a platoon with Meyers no longer in the picture, and LaMonte Wade Jr. and Zach Dezenzo figure to platoon in left field as well. Yordan Alvarez will get the odd start in left field but Houston wants to keep the star slugger primarily as the regular DH.
Another wrinkle to consider in a potential Astros/Rockies trade is that Colorado is one of the few teams in clear seller mode right now. While the Rockies might prefer to wait until closer to the deadline to start moving trade chips, there’s nothing stopping the club from swinging some deals now, if a rival suitor has a need that has to be addressed in short order. The Astros might have to give up more in a trade to land Moniak and/or McCarthy now, but improving the outfield situation earlier also improves Houston’s chances over a longer portion of the season.
