At least 191 million people are forecast to endure temperatures of at least 35C on Sunday in Europe, with the heat particularly intense in Germany, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, according to AFP estimates.
A total of 381 million people in Europe, excluding Turkey, will see temperatures surpass 30C, according to analysis based on forecasts from the German Meteorological Service and 2025 population projections from the Joint Research Centre collated by Austrian NGO Klimadashboard.
Almost all of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic are expected to see temperatures rise above 35C on Sunday, as are 42 million people across much of Germany, particularly in the Berlin area.
Slovakia, Serbia, Croatia, Italy, Austria and western Ukraine will also be affected.
In mainland France, where red alerts were expected to be lifted on Sunday evening, some 11 million people will be affected.
In tabulating these figures, AFP used a method similar to that of Klimadashboard, cross-referencing the 0300 GMT weather forecast model from the German meteorological service (DWD), with population density data.
Residents of an area are counted if the model forecasts temperatures exceeding 30C or 35C at that location at any point.
As the model is accurate within a range of around 6.5 kilometres (4 miles), it cannot fully reflect urban heat islands, David Jablonski of the NGO Klimadashboard told AFP.
Consequently, the analysis “probably underestimates the number of people affected in densely populated urban areas”, the organisation states on its European Heat Tracker website.
