BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has warned that the outlook for investment in Mexico has become more uncertain. According to the firm, the recent decision by the United States not to renew the North American trade agreement, USMCA, will create uncertainty and risks for long-term investment plans.
“There is no long-term investment that, faced with this uncertainty, is willing to move aggressively. We cannot expect high economic growth because investment is unlikely to surge given the ongoing uncertainty,” José Luis Ortega, head of Active Fixed Income and Multi-Asset Investments at BlackRock Mexico, said at a conference on Thursday.
Ortega acknowledged that, following the Trump administration’s decision, Mexico lost an opportunity to gain the certainty needed to spur investment this year. However, he noted that there remains the possibility of extending the agreement for another 16 years in 2027 or 2028 and argued that the fundamentals of the Mexican economy remain sound.
“There is fiscal prudence and we are seeing the government trying to work with its counterparts in the United States and Canada to achieve the best conditions for growth in Mexico,” Ortega said.
As part of its outlook for the second half of 2026, the financial giant expects Mexico to continue offering relatively stable macroeconomic fundamentals despite a more prolonged USMCA negotiation process. Sergio Méndez, managing director of BlackRock Mexico, added that while greater certainty and a long-term roadmap for U.S.-Mexico trade relations would be preferable, economic ties between the two countries will continue.
In Mexico, BlackRock remains particularly interested in investments in technology, energy and logistics projects, including railways and ports. With the rise of artificial intelligence, Méndez stressed the importance of building infrastructure capable of supporting rapid technological growth.
Asked about the recent downgrades to Mexico’s sovereign credit rating by several ratings agencies, BlackRock executives said the possibility of the country losing its investment-grade status remains a risk, but one they do not currently expect to materialize because of government efforts to shore up public finances.
“The Finance Ministry is working in a significant way to create the conditions to prevent this from happening; at this time, we do not see a probability that it will occur in the short term,” Méndez said.
With a slowing economy — Mexico’s GDP contracted 0.6% in the first quarter — Claudia Sheinbaum’s government has reached out to the business community to spur private investment. In April, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and the firm’s country head of Mexico, Sergio Méndez, met with the president to exchange views. Months after that meeting, Méndez stressed that investment is a cornerstone for the country’s growth.
“Often these discussions, not just with the president but with many actors in Mexico’s economy, are to share the trends we are seeing, what we are seeing in other countries, in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, and how we can participate in the country’s development,” he said.
Artificial intelligence will shape the future
According to BlackRock’s forecasts, Latin America is entering the second half of the year with a more favorable macroeconomic outlook than many other emerging markets, thanks to sustained disinflation, credible monetary frameworks and global forces reshaping growth and capital flows. In an environment marked by scarcity, artificial intelligence and geopolitical realignment, the asset manager outlined politics and external shocks as potential risks for the region.
“Brazil’s presidential elections, Peru’s political transition, policy adjustments in Colombia and the annual USMCA review could influence both investment sentiment and macroeconomic fundamentals,” the firm said in its outlook.
BlackRock began as a fixed-income investment manager but has diversified significantly over the years. By the second quarter of this year, the company had reached a record $15.3 trillion in assets under management worldwide.
Despite a challenging environment, Méndez sees abundant opportunities ahead.
“What excites us is that we can no longer speak only of specific assets or individual companies; we must talk about an entire portfolio,” he said. “It is vital to have a well-diversified portfolio that includes not only fixed income and equities but also some commodities and metals. Those asset classes are becoming increasingly important and are placing certain economies in a tremendously advantageous position.”
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