The defending 2025 AL Champions, mired in a 10-15 start, are shaking up their bullpen. After three blown saves and an early yank against the Angels on April 21st, the Blue Jays (as covered by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) announced that Jeff Hoffman is out as closer while the team transitions to a closer-by-committee approach. Righties Louis Varland, Tyler Rogers, and Braydon Fisher should be in play for save opportunities. However, Matheson mentions that Varland’s fireman role in the bullpen may preclude him from the ninth in some games.
It’s perhaps an unsurprising development given his early-season performance: an unsightly 7.59 ERA in 10 2/3 innings is hard to stomach from a high-leverage reliever, even for a small sample size. His 6 unintentional walks, 2 HBPs, and a wild pitch underscore his challenge to command the zone and prevent baserunners. However, Hoffman’s stuff remains filthy. His 41.2% strikeout rate is elite. Due to the nature of small sample sizes, relievers’ performances can be extremely volatile, and ERA models like xFIP (1.68) and SIERA (1.93) both think he’s been downright snakebit. Regardless of misfortune, Hoffman’s results have been lacking.
Hoffman put up an excellent run with the Phillies between 2023-2024. Among qualified relievers in that time frame, his 2.28 ERA in 118 2/3 innings was sixth-best in the league. This performance wasn’t a mirage: his 26.0 K-BB% (implying high strikeouts and low walks) and 2.65 SIERA were the fourth and third best marks during that period, respectively. Impressed with the recent body of work, the Blue Jays staked Hoffman to a three-year, $33M deal during the 2024-2025 offseason.
His 2025 was less successful. Hoffman coughed up the most homers he’s ever allowed while pitching exclusively out of the bullpen. His postseason run looked like a return to form, and was quite good on the whole, but Hoffman’s Fall Classic run will likely be most (in)famously remembered for the game-tying home run given up to Miguel Rojas with 1 out in the ninth of Game Seven.
The Blue Jays have some other fantastic options to finish games while their erstwhile closer attempts to figure it out in a lower-leverage setting. Varland has been excellent thus far, boosting his strikeout rate in 2026 by nearly 50% of his career percentage. He seldom walks batters and has yet to have a ball leave the yard this season. He looks very much like last year’s version turned to 11, and should be first-in-line for saves (when available). Varland, in a small sample, has gone 1 for 3 in save opportunities.
Submariner righty Roger should also be in the mix. While his strikeout numbers are pedestrian, he typically commands the zone well (career 4.5 BB% rate) and is a groundball specialist with a career 57.1 GB% rate. Rogers has had mixed success in the closer role thus far, going 19 for 42 in opportunities. Lesser heralded but still highly effective Fisher could also climb the bullpen pecking order, though he has less experience in higher-leverage situations than Varland and Rogers.
