The polls ahead of California’s jungle primary for governor Tuesday show Republican Steve Hilton will likely secure one of two spots on the November ballot after his insurgent campaign to turn the state around and end years of liberal governance.
Still, his place on the ballot is not a done deal, and it will put his pitch to reform the deep-blue state to the test after 15 years of Democratic rule.
Mr. Hilton, eyeing poll numbers showing his victory at risk, urged voters Monday to drop their support of fellow Republican candidate Chad Bianco and coalesce behind him.
Mr. Hilton, who comfortably led or placed second in earlier polling, is suddenly neck-and-neck with Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer, which could push him out of the No. 2 spot and eliminate the sole Republican from the November ballot.
“It’s a very, very tight race. Three people, competing for two spots in the general election,” Mr. Hilton said, leveling with his followers in a video post. “Tom Steyer is catching up.”
Although the race centers on a few top candidates, the field is huge.
SEE ALSO: Steyer goes all-in on transgender athletes as California governor’s race goes down to wire
Voters will choose among 61 candidates in the governor’s race. Election officials also must count mail-in ballots that voters began sending in weeks ago.
The state is unlikely to determine the winners Tuesday night, California Secretary of State Shirley N. Weber told KCRA News. “It is possible, but we’ve got 60 candidates. … It is not likely that we will know that night for sure.”
Mr. Hilton has been at or near the top of the heap throughout his campaign to lower taxes, reduce government spending and slash burdensome regulations.
He told The Washington Times that Californians are “sick of it and they want change” after one-party Democratic rule has led to higher costs, higher unemployment, a massive homelessness crisis, terrible schools, increasing poverty and a housing shortage.
Mr. Hilton’s reform message has reverberated through the mayor’s race in Los Angeles, where a wave of voter discontent after the disastrous response to the Palisades fire has elevated reality TV star Spencer Pratt, giving him a shot at a spot on the November ballot.
Still, California is a blue state, and like Mr. Pratt, Mr. Hilton is facing an electorate skewed toward Democratic voters, who outnumber Republicans by nearly 2-to-1.
SEE ALSO: Wave of voter discontent carries Spencer Pratt into striking distance of L.A. Mayor Bass
Mr. Hilton told his social media followers that he is the only viable Republican running in the primary, and if Mr. Bianco’s backers do not switch their vote to him, the state is guaranteed to elect another Democrat in November.
“It’s about the future of California, and if we don’t get a Republican in the top two, we have no chance for change,” Mr. Hilton said.
Polls show California voters may be on the verge of rejecting Mr. Hilton’s change agenda.
Mr. Bianco, the Republican sheriff of Riverside County, has sunk to single digits after being at or near the top of the polls just a few weeks ago.
Democrat and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, previously languishing in very low single digits, has ascended to the lead over all candidates, followed by Mr. Hilton and a closely trailing Mr. Steyer.
At least one poll shows Mr. Steyer, an environmental activist who has positioned himself as the most progressive candidate in the race, narrowly winning the No. 2 spot behind Mr. Becerra. Such an outcome would end any chance of electing the first Republican governor in two decades.
An Emerson College poll of likely California voters taken May 27-28 showed Mr. Hilton in a tight contest for a spot on the November ballot.
It showed Mr. Becerra leading with 28% of the vote, followed by Mr. Steyer with 22% and Mr. Hilton close behind with 21%.
“Xavier Becerra maintains frontrunner status in the final Emerson poll ahead of Tuesday’s primary, while Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton both have paths to advance to the November general election,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
He said Mr. Hilton will benefit from the erosion of support for Mr. Bianco. Mr. Steyer, meanwhile, needs to mobilize younger voters, “while limiting further gains by Becerra, whose growing coalition could siphon support for Steyer.”
Democrats are eager for the primary to be over. Earlier polls showed Mr. Bianco and Mr. Hilton leading, while Democratic candidates who trailed in polls faced the possibility of being locked out of the November ballot entirely. That scenario would have guaranteed that a Republican governor would succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is term-limited and considering a 2028 White House run.
At one point, California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks publicized internal polls hoping to nudge poorly performing Democrats, Mr. Becerra among them, out of the race.
“Certainly, we are ready for this primary to be over,” Mr. Hicks told KCRA News this week.
The race and its low-polling Democrats were jolted by the April sexual misconduct scandal that forced the top-performing Democratic candidate, Rep. Eric Swalwell, to drop out of the governor’s race and leave Congress.
His departure cleared a path for Mr. Becerra, the only candidate to have previously won statewide office.
Mr. Becerra, who served as California attorney general from 2017 to 2021, has had to defend his leadership abilities amid a scandal involving his former chief of staff, Sean McCluskie.
McCluskie pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit bank and wire fraud and stealing $225,000 from Mr. Becerra’s campaign war chest. Although Mr. Becerra was not implicated in the crime and said he knew nothing about it, the matter has raised questions about his competence.
His low poll numbers nonetheless rose quickly once Mr. Swalwell quit the race.
At a May 30 rally in Long Beach, Mr. Becerra, son of Mexican immigrants who he said arrived in the United States with $12, pledged to fight the Trump administration’s deportations of illegal immigrants and the president’s social welfare spending reforms.
“As your governor, I will not bend a knee to Trump’s trillion-dollar assault on Medicaid,” he said.
Mr. Becerra, who was secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services under President Biden, also promised to declare California’s housing shortage “a state of emergency” and to steer the state, now $497 billion in debt, toward a universal healthcare system.
He referred to Mr. Steyer as “a billionaire” and Mr. Hilton as “Trump’s handpicked candidate.”
Mr. Steyer, who called himself “a huge climate guy,” has shattered spending records by pouring $195 million of his fortune into broadcast, cable and radio advertising, according to the firm AdImpact, which tracks political ads.
Mr. Steyer pledged to lower costs for all Californians while enacting an environmental justice agenda.
He has pitched a plan to tax the “greedy” corporations and billionaires and build 1 million homes while forcing power companies to lower electricity bills by 25%. He also promised to bar U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the agency that carries out deportations, from California.
He attacked Mr. Becerra’s campaign for receiving support from Chevron and Pacific Gas and Electric Co.
“Corporations buy politicians like Xavier Becerra to protect their profits,” he said.
