For the second straight series, it’s a best of three for the Montreal Canadiens. They won games five and seven against Tampa Bay. They would certainly take the same script in the Atlantic Division final.
Game 5 was on the road again, and it was the same result. The Canadiens doubled the Buffalo Sabres 6-3.
Wilde Horses
Though Cole Caufield still has a place under his regular season clip of 51 goals, his recent play proves an old adage: A goal scorer is going to figure it out. Caufield is a goal scorer, but no matter how good any player is at it, there are lulls. Even Alex Ovechkin had lulls.
The Canadiens’ opening goal wasn’t just a Caufield third goal in his last three games. It was the type of goal that he needs to show that he can score because the heat map loves where he was. When Caufield is on the perimeter, that is when it is more likely that he will struggle.
When he scores from three feet away, it’s obvious that he is in the right areas. His goal in Game 4 was also from three feet away, basically standing in front of the goalie to beat him. It was a rare five-on-five goal for the first line as Juraj Slafkovsky’s pass to Nick Suzuki started it up.
Only a couple minutes later, in an absolutely wild first period, it was Alexandre Carrier simply throwing it toward the net where it hit Alexandre Texier, who had no awareness of any of it. It went off Texier’s skate while he was physically engaged with the Buffalo defender.
The second period continued with some of the most wide-open hockey this entire playoffs. One team had pressure for 50 seconds, then the other team had pressure for 50 seconds. The Suzuki line was getting caved in, then they had golden scoring chances.
One constant in an unpredictable event is always Lane Hutson. The Canadiens were down one and they needed an Hutson moment, and he delivered. He moved down the left side and somehow found Josh Anderson through the traffic on the back door for a tap-in.
Anderson is having a strong playoff with his third tally. Hutson with 12 points is seventh in playoff scoring.
The Canadiens finished 40 minutes with five goals. Ivan Demidov took a shot from 10 feet that rested on the goal line. Thankfully, for the Canadiens, Jake Evans got to it first to tap it in.
It would seem likely with eight goals in 40 minutes that there were a lot of power plays, but there was only one for each team. The Canadiens scored on theirs. Hutson kept it in to Slafkovsky, and he slid a great one-hand pass to Suzuki who one-timed it for his fourth of the post-season. Akko-Pekka Luukkonen wasn’t sharp.
Sabres head coach Lindy Ruff had seen enough. Alex Lyon came in for the third period, and he witnessed first-hand the first goal in the playoff career of Demidov. Demidov ripped a shot upstairs on the power play and the relief was obvious. Demidov had two points, while Suzuki and Slafkovsky had three points each.
Get breaking National news
Get breaking Canada news delivered to your inbox as it happens so you won’t miss a trending story.
This was the Canadiens’ best game of the playoffs in shot share. It was total domination for the first time these playoffs. Here are the numbers before Lyon was pulled with 6:30 left as that skewed them: Evans line with an 86 Expected Goals share, Veleno line with an 85 share, Danault line a 74 share.
On defence, Matheson and Carrier with an 85 share, Guhle and Xhekaj with a 75, and Hutson with Dobson a 74 share.
Wilde Goats
One of the weaknesses of the Canadiens this season has been clearing out the front of the net. The Lightning didn’t exploit it much. They tried to create plays from the perimeter, and work it in close through passing. They only had limited success with that high-quality effort.
A much lower quality of offensive creation is simply to put a bunch of bodies in front of the net and shoot from the point, hoping for some chaos. This becomes a better strategy when the bodies that you gather there are big. The Sabres are using this strategy extremely well.
It’s a town hall meeting in front of Jakub Dobes every game, and it resulted in two pinball goals in the first period. Jason Zucker threw it through about seven bodies to count early. That one bounced off three different players before counting.
Five minutes later, it was a ton of traffic in front of Dobes again, and this time Josh Doan counted. The third Buffalo goal on Dobes was similar as well, as Hutson provided the screen that fooled Dobes as it went five-hole. Konsta Helenius with the tally.
It felt at the time that Dobes deserved some rest. Concentrating that much every single game can be taxing. No fault to Dobes, but it didn’t feel like his night with three goals in 10 minutes. Certainly, the Goals Saved Above Expected analytics didn’t think much of Dobes’ effort, as he was a minus 2.75 on the three goals. He finished with a .42 to the plus to show you how mentally tough this kid is.
For the first time in the playoffs, the Canadiens were having a rough time with a swarming offence throwing more bodies forward, sometimes with all five Sabres lower than the dots. The Canadiens need to create a counter attack odd man rush off of that. It is available.
A team can’t throw five bodies that far forward without being punished for it with the right strategy.
Wilde Cards
Only one team has a parade. Thirty-one other teams are forced to assess what they are missing in their lineup to have their own parade. The missing piece or pieces is usually only revealed when the playoff journey begins. The deeper the journey, the more obvious the holes in the plan.
It’s such a true adage that even if you go to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup final, there is still a hole in the roster to assess. Take the Edmonton Oilers last year as every fan and media member will admit that they fell one game shy because of goaltending, and physicality.
As the Canadians make their way through the second round of the playoffs, some aspects of their game are stronger than thought and others are weaker.
One aspect of the Canadiens game that has held up remarkably well is defence. It was believed that the club was sorely missing a right side defenceman of a top-four calibre. However, the defence has held up well. Alexandre Carrier has played a top-four role extremely well. That isn’t to say a top-four arrival of David Reinbacher wouldn’t be welcomed, but it isn’t the gap that was expected before the playoffs began.
In net, halfway through the season, there seemed to be a serious issue. Again, it’s held up brilliantly. Jakub Dobes is the second best goaltender in the playoffs behind only Frederik Andersen who, at 36 years of age, is putting in the best goaltending of his career.
Dobes is not far behind in Goals Saved Above Expected as he has handled the high-stakes of the playoffs without any hiccups. Dobes has shown the Canadiens are covered where they didn’t know until they saw the evidence.
The depth of the lineup has also held up extremely well — better than expected. The club has received excellent performances from so many depth players: Alex Newhook, Kirby Dach, Zachary Bolduc, Alexandre Texier, Jake Evans, and Phillip Danault have all exceeded expectations.
The stars at forward have had some issues living up to the regular season numbers, but that’s common. The club would like more, but there’s nothing to address. Some times a player gets hot, and other times he loses his mojo.
The only true hole in the lineup that would propel the Canadiens to even greater heights if filled is at second-line centre. It is the missing link. Evans is having an outstanding playoff, but he is not a scoring centre. Evans has the defensive side of the puck handled, but offence is needed.
Ivan Demidov has only one playoff goal as he hasn’t found a player to link with to get close to his potential. They thought his muse was Oliver Kapanen, but after not missing a game in the regular season, he has fallen so completely out of disfavour he can’t even get back in the lineup.
Management was said to be negotiating with Robert Thomas of the St. Louis Blues, but the price was too high. If the Canadiens had Thomas in this playoff, they would be favoured to roll right through the east to the finals.
Michael Hage chose to play a third season at Michigan. He would be in the lineup right now, seeing how ready he is, and if Porter Martone is any indication — and it should be — Hage would have been ready.
That’s GM Kent Hughes’ work in the offseason. He needs to get a second-line centre. It would take the pressure off Nick Suzuki to always face the best players from the opposition. That would give Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky an easier match-up, as well. For the opposing coach, the Canadiens are an easy target: Stop the first line.
The Canadiens are a Thomas-type away from two lines of 100-goal potential. When that hole is filled, the Canadiens have shown this spring that they have the ability to win the Stanley Cup. They’re already only one win away from the final four.
Brian Wilde, a Montreal-based sports writer, brings you on after each Canadiens game.
