A nightmare season continues for Carlos Estévez. Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports that the Royals’ closer suffered a rotator cuff strain and will be shut down from throwing for three weeks. He’ll be reevaluated at the end of May.
Estévez has been out of action since Opening Day. He took a Michael Harris II comebacker off his left foot in his first outing. That resulted in a contusion that sidelined him for more than a month. The Royals sent him to Triple-A Omaha last night to begin a minor league rehab assignment. Estévez threw 14 pitches and recorded two outs before reporting the shoulder discomfort.
He’ll obviously be pulled off the rehab assignment and is essentially starting the recovery process from scratch. Even if he’s cleared to resume throwing in three weeks, he’ll need to progress through a series of bullpen and live batting practice sessions before he’s ready to embark on a new rehab assignment. That points toward a mid-late June target as the likely earliest return date. He’ll be a candidate for a move to the 60-day IL if they need to clear a 40-man roster spot, though the Royals will probably move Jonathan India (season-ending labrum surgery) there first.
Estévez hasn’t looked right at any point in 2026. Even when he was ostensibly healthy during Spring Training and in the World Baseball Classic, his velocity was nowhere near usual levels. Estévez averaged 89.4 mph on his four-seam fastball over five spring appearances, nearly seven ticks below last year’s level. Pitchers usually build some velocity as they get into game shape and play in higher-pressure settings during the regular season, but that kind of drop in one offseason is very rare. Estévez was around 91 mph in his regular season debut before the foot injury.
The back of the bullpen looked like a potential strength for the Royals entering the spring. Estévez led the Majors with 42 saves last year. He turned in a 2.45 earned run average for a second straight season. Although last year’s career-low 20.1% strikeout rate and 8.2% swinging strike marks were red flags, he would have been locked in as Matt Quatraro’s closer.
Estévez’s absence has pushed Lucas Erceg to the ninth. He has held his own, going 10-12 in save chances while allowing six earned runs through 15 1/3 innings. However, Erceg is missing bats at the lowest rate of his career while struggling to get hitters to expand the strike zone. He’s falling behind early in counts and has walked 11 of 62 opponents (17.7%). Erceg has mostly worked around the free passes, but he’s not leaving himself much margin for error.
The Kansas City bullpen as a whole carries a 4.80 earned run average that ranks 24th in MLB. Only Cincinnati relievers have issued walks at a higher rate, while they’re in the bottom third of the league in strikeouts and whiffs. They’ve been better of late following a league-worst start to the season, but only Daniel Lynch IV and Matt Strahm have strong underlying numbers.
Estévez is the team’s highest-paid reliever, making a $10MM salary in the second season of his $22MM free agent contract. The Royals hold a $13MM option for next year that comes with a $2MM buyout. It’s increasingly difficult to see them exercising that, meaning the two-time All-Star will likely return to free agency at year’s end.
