Royals left-hander Cole Ragans underwent surgery on the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow, reports Anne Rogers of MLB.com. It was reported last week that Ragans would be undergoing elbow surgery, but the details of the procedure weren’t clear. The Royals now expect Ragans to miss 10 to 12 months, per Jaylon T. Thompson of The Kansas City Star. That suggests Ragans may have undergone the internal brace alternative to full Tommy John surgery, as the latter would require a longer timeline of 14 months or more. Ragans is already on the 60-day injured list and will stay there for the rest of the year.
While it’s not quite a worst-case scenario for Ragans and the Royals, it’s pretty close. The lefty hit the 15-day IL in May due to an elbow impingement. He started a rehab assignment a few weeks later but that was paused due to stiffness in that elbow. Subsequent testing led the Royals to determine last week that surgery would be necessary. Now that the exact details of the procedure are known, the Royals will have to proceed without Ragans for the rest of this year and perhaps a decent chunk of next year as well.
For Ragans, it is going to continue an injury-marred stretch of his career. Not so long ago, he looked to be blossoming into an ace. Acquired from the Rangers in the summer of 2023 for Aroldis Chapman, he posted a 2.64 earned run average down the stretch that year. He mostly kept that going over a full season in 2024, putting up a 3.14 ERA, 29.3% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate over 32 starts. He finished fourth in American League Cy Young voting.
But last year, a left groin strain and a rotator cuff strain limited him to 13 starts with a 4.67 ERA. This year, he put up a 4.84 ERA in eight starts before hitting the IL. Now he’s going to miss the rest of this season and won’t be able to pitch a full season in 2027 either.
Contractually, it won’t impact Ragans in the short term. Going into 2025, when Ragans was coming off his best season, the Royals signed him to a three-year, $13.25MM deal for the 2025 to 2027 seasons. That deal covered one pre-arbitration season and two of Ragans’ three arb years. It gave him a slight bump in pay one year ahead of schedule, while providing the Royals some cost certainty over two of his arb years. He will still be arbitration eligible for the 2028 season. His earning power in that final arb year will depend on when he comes back next year and how effective he is at that time.
For the Royals, it’s the latest bit of bad news in what is turning out to be an awful season. The club is 35-52, the worst record in the American League. The Rockies are the only club in the majors below them. Injuries have played a big role in that. In addition to Ragans, Kris Bubic, Carlos Estévez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, Jonathan India and others are on the injured list at the moment. Depth starters like Ryan Bergert and Ben Kudrna also required season-ending elbow surgeries.
The club is now destined to go into the deadline as sellers. Hopefully, they can at least recoup some young talent to help them in future seasons, though they may not have much to sell. Bubic, Estévez and India are impending free agents and could have been some of the club’s best trade pieces but their injuries have sapped most or all of their value. Other impending free agents have also performed poorly. Trading a controllable pitcher like Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha could provide some value but would hurt the club’s 2027 rotation.
As of now, Wacha, Lugo and Noah Cameron could have three spots in next year’s rotation. With this surgery for Ragans, he could be a midseason addition but won’t be ready by Opening Day. The same is likely true for Bergert and Kudrna. As mentioned, Bubic is bound for free agency. Guys like Stephen Kolek, Luinder Avila, Mitch Spence and others could try to step up and claim jobs in the interim, but the Royals may have to look for more rotation help at this year’s deadline or in the offseason.
Photo courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff, Imagn Images
