11:46AM: The Cubs would preferably want to add three pitchers by the deadline, as per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and Ken Rosenthal. This trio of adds could break down as a starter and two relievers or two relievers and one starter, depending on what is available.
11:40AM: It is no surprise that pitching is the Cubs’ biggest deadline need, and Chicago has already been linked to such hurlers as Tarik Skubal, Freddy Peralta, and Reid Detmers just within the last few days. The Cubs’ search has also included talks about such pitchers as Robbie Ray, Clay Holmes, and Emerson Hancock (according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale), and The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen lists the Cubs as one of the clubs “believed to have interest in” Casey Mize.
There is plenty of variance within all of these trade targets, which speaks to how broadly the Cubs are considering all possibilities. Among the most recent names cited, Ray and Mize are both free agents this winter, and Holmes is expected to be a free agent when he opts out of the final year of his contract. By contrast, Hancock isn’t eligible for arbitration until after the 2027 season and is under team control through 2030.
As such, Hancock would very likely command the largest trade return of the quartet, even though he has the shortest track record of success at the MLB level. The former sixth overall pick made his big league debut in 2023 and didn’t start to produce consistent results until this year, as Hancock has a 3.26 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate across 20 starts and 110 1/3 innings for the Mariners. His 3.80 SIERA may be the better reflection of his performance, but that’s still a respectable showing for a 27-year-old who may still have a ways to go before hitting his ceiling as a Major League pitcher.
Prying Hancock away from Seattle would probably cost the Cubs some significant longer-term offensive talent, as the Mariners are aiming to add bats. These hitters would also have to be ready to contribute pretty much right away to an M’s team that is in win-now mode, even though Seattle is now 53-58 after dropping eight of its last 10 games. (This recent slump alone might change the equation on the Mariners’ willingness to move Hancock to the Cubs or anyone, but the M’s figure to be open to offers as either buyers or perhaps sellers right up until the deadline.) Matt Shaw would fit the description as a big league-ready player who could immediately step into Seattle’s lineup, though Shaw is currently on the injured list.
Of the rental pitchers, Ray is the most expensive, as he is owed a little under $8MM remaining of his $25MM salary for 2026. However, the Giants have expressed a willingness to cover at least some of that remaining salary in exchange for a better trade return. MLBTR’s Payroll Tracker has the Cubs’ estimated tax number at around $252.3MM, which puts them over the $244MM tax threshold but still under the $264MM secondary threshold that has acted as something of an unofficial cap for the team over its history.
Since Chicago is likely looking to add multiple pitchers, the team naturally would prefer to not make too much of a financial splash on one single addition, if it can be helped. A frontline ace like Skubal might be an exception, but Ray (a former Cy Young Award winner in his own right) might also be worth spending some extra money since Ray is a pitcher who can certainly be slotted into or even atop a playoff rotation.
The Cubs have dealt with so many pitching injuries this season that it is worth wondering if Holmes might be a lesser target on their list simply because the right-hander is still on the 60-day IL. Holmes suffered a fractured fibula on May 15 but has now pitched in two minor league rehab games, even if he is unlikely to return to the Mets’ roster before the trade deadline. That hasn’t stopped the Cubs and many other teams from monitoring Holmes’ progress during his rehab starts.
While there’s some doubt about Hancock’s availability, Ray, Holmes, and Mize are all expected to be dealt before Monday’s deadline. The Giants and Mets are well out of contention, and the Tigers remain on the fringes of the AL race with a 52-58 record but are expected to turn to selling by Monday. Mize was scratched from his scheduled start on Friday, adding to the speculation that the former first overall pick will be on the move.
Beyond the focus on the rotation, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma writes that the Cubs will also be looking to add relievers, ideally a right-hander with strikeout ability. The latter specification is more important than the former, which is why Sharma notes that Chicago “would love to acquire” San Diego’s Adrian Morejon if the Padres decide to sell at the deadline (or sell and buy to keep their playoff hopes alive).
The Padres are sure to put a high asking price on Morejon, even though he is a free agent after the season. Sharma feels the Cubs are probably likelier to deal significant prospects for a starter than a reliever (especially a rental), plus Chicago has several bullpen arms projected to return from the IL, which may lessen the need for an abundance of new relievers.
