The Giants are in a tough spot, currently sporting a 29-43 record. The Rockies are the only team in the majors below them in the standings. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the club hasn’t fully committed to selling but is moving in that direction. They have started “testing the waters” on potential deals and have “put out feelers” on some of their players. Rosenthal mentions infielder Luis Arraez and left-hander Robbie Ray as guys likely to be available, with third baseman Matt Chapman another possibility. One player not expected to be available is right-hander Logan Webb, as Rosenthal reports that the Giants have no plans to move him.
It has undoubtedly been a disappointing season for the Giants, who have been trying to push over the hump of contention for a while now. Late in 2024, they signed Chapman to a six-year, $151MM extension. Buster Posey was reportedly instrumental in orchestrating that deal even though he was merely a member of the club’s board of directors, not officially running the front office. The club then decided to fire president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and give the job to Posey.
Since taking the helm, Posey made a couple of other bold moves that involved big financial commitments. He signed Willy Adames ahead of the 2025 season, giving him a seven-year, $182MM deal. One year ago today, they acquired Rafael Devers after he had a falling out with the Red Sox. Devers was still owed more than half of last year’s $27.5MM salary plus an extra $238.5MM in the eight remaining years on the deal.
Coming into 2026, they didn’t spend anywhere near that level, but did give eight-figure deals to Adrian Houser, Harrison Bader, Tyler Mahle and Arraez. They also made a notable expenditure in the dugout by bringing in Tony Vitello from the college ranks. They fired Bob Melvin, eating his $4MM salary. Then they had to pay a $3MM buyout to the University of Tennessee, on top of paying Vitello a $3.5MM annual salary on a three-year deal. Effectively, that means the Giants are paying $10.5MM on the manager position this year.
Despite all those investments, the Giants haven’t been able to gain much momentum. They hovered around .500 for most of the Zaidi era and finished 81-81 under Posey last year. As mentioned, this year is out to an even worse start. They are already nine games back of a playoff spot and 12 games under .500. With seven weeks to go until the deadline, it will be hard for them to avoid selling, so it makes sense that they would start canvassing other clubs.
Arraez and Ray would be the most clear-cut trade candidates, as both are impending free agents. Arraez should have more value since he is having a better season and getting paid less. The Giants effectively bought low on him. He won three straight batting titles from 2022 to 2024, with his batting average finishing between .314 and .354 in all three of those campaigns. That dipped to .292 last year as he battled a thumb injury. With that lesser offense and some questions about his defensive home, the Giants were able to sign him for a relatively modest $12MM one-year deal.
Arraez is back to his old self at the plate, hitting .319. He doesn’t take many walks or have much power but he’s the best in the game at putting the bat on the ball and finding some grass. Perhaps more remarkably, the Giants have put him at second base and seen him flourish. In previous years, his work at the keystone had been poor enough that he essentially became a full-time first baseman. But this year, he has been credited with nine Outs Above Average, second only to JJ Wetherholt at the position. Defensive Runs Saved has graded him as league average but even that is an improvement for him.
By the time the deadline rolls around, that deal will have about $4MM left to be paid out. That’s still a notable amount of money for a club to take on midseason. If the Giants are willing to absorb some of that, they could improve the prospect package they receive in return. Contenders such as the Rays, Dodgers, Rangers, Reds, Orioles and others have some current questions at second base and could be interested. Some clubs might also just want the bat and could acquire Arraez to play first base or serve as a designated hitter.
Ray is a former Cy Young winner but he’s a different pitcher now. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2023 and 2024 seasons. He was back on the mound last year put up a solid 3.65 earned run average. This year, his age-34 season, he has a 4.42 ERA. That might not even accurately depict how rough his campaign has been. His 21% strikeout rate is below average and miles away from his peak. His 11.5% walk rate is more than two ticks above average. He’s had some help from a fortunate .263 batting average on balls in play and 75.2% strand rate. His 5.26 FIP and 4.82 SIERA suggest he’s actually a bit lucky to have a mid-4.00 ERA.
Considering that performance, his age and his $25MM salary, he doesn’t have much value at the moment. Given his pedigree and the rate of injuries around the league, perhaps some club would take a shot, but the Giants would have to likely eat most of the money for a negligible return. About $8MM will be left to be paid out when the deadline rolls around.
While those would be pretty obvious guys to sell, Webb would be a tougher pill to swallow. He is 29 years old and one of the better pitchers in the league. He would certainly have plenty of interest around the league if the club made him available. However, he is the face of the franchise. He’s a bit of a local boy, as he grew up in Rocklin, California, a few hours outside San Francisco. He was drafted and developed by the club.
He is also signed through 2028, so making him available would be a signal of a much deeper rebuild project. Presumably, with all of their investments, the Giants are hoping to add some young talent at this year’s deadline and then try for contention again in 2027.
More to come.
