Though Mexico will kick off the 2026 World Cup on home turf, Goldman Sachs says the odds of a historic title run are slim.
In a new report, “The World Cup and the Economy,” the U.S. financial giant gives Mexico just a 0.8% chance of winning the expanded 48-team tournament being co-hosted by Mexico, the United States and Canada.
That places El Tri, the Mexican national team, 12th in the field, tied with Senegal and Ecuador and behind Norway at 1.6%.
Goldman’s model — which weighs historical performance, scoring, momentum, geography and other variables — makes Spain the favorite at about 26%, followed by France at 19% and defending World Cup champion Argentina at 14%. Brazil, the Netherlands and England sit in the next tier.
The Wall Street investment bank is more bullish on Mexico’s early path, projecting Mexico to win all three of its Group A games — including a 2-0 victory over South Africa in the June 11 opener at Estadio Azteca. It also gives head coach Javier Aguirre’s team a 95.6% chance of reaching the new, expanded round of 32, with 68% odds of making the round of 16.
Mexico’s chances then drop to 33.3% to reach the quarterfinals, 10.2% to reach the semifinals and 3.4% to reach the July 19 final in New Jersey.
A separate Opta “supercomputer” is slightly kinder, listing Mexico with a 0.9% chance of winning it all. In thousands of simulations, the computer has Mexico advancing from Group A in 87.2% of cases, and reaching the quarterfinals in 23.5%.
Then again, since the Goldman Sachs research model acts on limited information, it is more of a “fun exercise,” said Jacek Dmochowski, an engineering professor at The City College of New York.
“The information that is going into the model is a tiny sliver of all the information that’s in the possession of the millions of people that have bet into [online] prediction markets,” he said.
Goldman’s simulations point to a Spain–Argentina final, with Spain lifting the trophy.
And though Mexico’s odds of hoisting the hardware are much lower, El Tri’s 0.8% chance is at least ahead of its fellow co-hosts, with the United States at 0.5% and Canada at 0.3%.
With reports from La Jornada, Bola VIP, Opta Analyst and CNN
