MURDOCK, Neb. (AP) — They aren’t toss-up races. Not even close.
But Democrats are dreaming of pulling off upsets in what might be called “reach” House districts, where Republicans usually win and likely will again — but where races could tighten if a rare political wave gains strength in November.
The party in power traditionally suffers losses during midterm elections. Democrats managed to avoid a predicted 2022 “red wave,” but they saw Republicans flip both chambers when President Donald Trump was reelected last cycle.
Now, with an unpopular war in Iran and lingering concerns about inflation, Democrats are hoping that this year could be a replay of 2018, when a backlash against Trump changed the balance of power in Congress.
“House Democrats are expanding the battlefield deep into Trump terrain,” said Washington Rep. Suzan DelBene, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella countered that “national Democrats can keep throwing darts at the map and calling wherever they land a battleground, but nobody is buying it.”
Here are some long-shot races, where stronger Democratic performances might signal an especially good election nationally for the party.
A candidate moved back to Nebraska after DOGE cuts
While all eyes are on the open seat in Nebraska’s hotly contested “blue dot” 2nd Congressional District in Omaha, another race in the nearby, but more rural, more conservative, 1st District might be heating up.
The seat hasn’t gone blue since President Lyndon B. Johnson topped the ticket in 1964, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the race to its list of those “in play,” meaning national party support.
Hoping to break the losing streak is Chris Backemeyer, a former senior State Department official who said he left Washington after the Elon Musk-ledDepartment of Government Efficiency “came in and just wanted me to fire a lot of people.”
Born and raised in the college town of Lincoln, the bluest part of an otherwise Republican district, Backemeyer quit his job and embarked on a cross-country road trip with his wife and three children, before eventually attending a town hall last summer hosted by Republican Rep. Mike Flood.
The line to get into the event stretched for blocks, Backemeyer recalled, and the atmosphere turned tense as audience members pressed Flood on cuts to Medicaid and reductions in federal veterans benefits. Backemeyer said he remembers thinking Nebraskans “deserve better.”
Flood was first elected in 2022, and won by 20-plus points two years ago. A former state legislator and owner of a broadcast communications company, he has continued to hold town halls with constituents — despite many of his House Republicans refraining from doing so.
As he campaigns in conservative areas, Backemeyer said “I’ve never been run out of town anywhere.” But he also knows that making it to Congress won’t be easy.
“I’ve had to convince just Democrats here that I can win,” he said.
Democrats seek another Kentucky bump
Rep. Andy Barr’s seat in Kentucky’s 6th District is open as he runs to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell. Barr is one of 36 Republican House members not seeking reelection this cycle, compared to 23 Democrats.
Former federal prosecutor and Navy veteran Zach Dembo is the Democratic nominee against Republican Ralph Alvarado, a physician and ex-state senator endorsed by Trump in the primary.
The central Kentucky district has remained solidly red since Barr defeated incumbent Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler in 2012, and the National Republican Congressional Committee said it now has the advantage in voting registrations.
But Dembo’s party sees hope in the fact that the district easily backed Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear during an off-year gubernatorial contest in 2023.
During that race, its largest county, Fayette — which includes Lexington — voted Democratic by more than 40 percentage points. A year later, however, the district easily reelected Barr as Trump carried Kentucky.
Trump’s primary endorsement may scramble a Nevada race
In the 2nd District of northern Nevada’s high desert, Republican Rep. Mark Amodei is retiring after 15 years in Congress. But his chosen successor, rancher and former state Sen. James Settelmeyer, didn’t win their party’s nomination to succeed him.
Trump endorsed small business owner and retired Air Force Lt. Col. David Flippo, who won the primary despite Amodei calling the president’s choice “a mistake.”
Flippo faces Teresa Benitez-Thompson, a social worker, former majority leader of the Nevada legislature and onetime Miss America contestant who left her seat in 2024 due to term limits.
The district, which includes Reno and the state capital of Carson City, has never elected a Democrat. Trump improved his vote share in all three of his presidential runs from 2016 to 2024, and his party holds a sizable, districtwide voter registration advantage.
Benitez-Thompson is arguing that she can push back on federal overreach. Flippo says he would solidify the district’s place in Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement.
Will Mace’s leaving jeopardize her Republican seat?
Rep. Nancy Mace is vacating her seat in South Carolina’s 1st District after finishing a distant fifth in the state’s Republican primary for governor. She has a history of on-and-off feuding with Trump, and he opposed her campaign after she pushed to release files related to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein.
Now Republicans have nominated Jenny Costa Honeycutt, an attorney and Charleston County councilwoman, to run against Democrat Nancy Lacore, a retired Navy vice admiral who was fired by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a larger purge at the Pentagon last year and later won a tough primary fight.
Trump easily carried the district in 2024, but having no incumbent could change the dynamics. Democrat Joe Cunningham flipped the seat during Trump’s first term, though Mace won it back for Republicans in 2020 and redistricting has likely made the seat more red since then.
A redrawn Texas district that may not be so reliably red
Texas’ 35th district was once safe blue territory stretching from San Antonio to Austin. But its boundaries were significantly redrawn by the state’s Republican-controlled Legislature.
The new district encompasses an electorate that is majority Hispanic and backed Trump by double digits in 2024. But Democrat Johnny Garcia, former sheriff of Bexar County, which includes San Antonio, has tried to woo disillusioned former Trump voters by campaigning as a “law-and-order” candidate who also opposes the president’s sweeping tariffs.
Garcia is facing Republican Carlos De La Cruz, brother of Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, who could potentially have her own, even tighter race for reelection in another part of the state, South Texas’ District 15.
A retired Air Force veteran in a district with a heavy Air Force presence, Carlos de la Cruz was endorsed by Trump in a crowded primary. The field he bested included Republican state Rep. John Lujan, who helped pass the new district’s boundaries.
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson recently campaigned in the district, bringing national party presence that might yet prove necessary if Garcia can keep things closer than expected.
Will Weissert, The Associated Press
