We look at how the war on Iran might affect the upcoming midterm elections, as well as how a portion of President Trump’s MAGA base sees U.S. involvement in another war in the Middle East.
SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
The war in Iran has not been popular with the American public, according to polls. We’re joined now by NPR’s Ron Elving. Ron, thanks for being with us.
RON ELVING, BYLINE: Good to be with you, Scott.
SIMON: It’s too early to tell, as we say in the news business. But should these – both of these wars end, domestically speaking, as we have to ask in a democracy, how will that translate politically for President Trump?
ELVING: It is too soon to tell what it will translate into. But given the shaky support for this war to date, bringing it to an end should surely be a win for Trump and many more people besides. And it certainly seems to be what he’s hoping for with these latest moves. He can sense that the issue has shifted. The devotees who have been most loyal to him for the longest time have long been skeptical of military ventures in the Middle East in the past, and with good reason. They thought Trump was with them on that, so the last few weeks have been troubling for them, to say the least. And getting out of this war would be the best thing for Trump and his party going into the midterm elections in November. But he has to make the dismount soon, and he needs to make it definitive.
SIMON: We’ve seen reports that up for negotiations are billions of dollars in Iran’s frozen assets in exchange for Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. The U.S. and Iran are also reportedly negotiating how many years Iran would prohibit itself from enriching uranium – anywhere from five to 20. Aren’t these positions President Trump has openly criticized in the past?
ELVING: There have been mixed signals about this timeline you mentioned. Will there even be a timetable? Will Iran have to meet certain deadlines? But you’re right on the money, Scott. We’ve been – we’ve seen conflicting reports about Iran getting cash in the deal – maybe lots of it, in the tens of billions. But President Trump denies there’s any payment on the table. We won’t give them $0.10, he said. Yet we should remember that Trump, for much of the past decade, has mocked and condemned Presidents Obama and Biden for returning to Iran some of that country’s own assets that had been frozen in the U.S., and a lot of that cash is still available to sweeten any deal that may be in the works. And it gets tricky. Any cash transfers to Iran at this point could cause rebellion in the MAGA ranks.
SIMON: President Trump told reporters this week that gas prices are, quote, “not very high.” But on Friday, gas prices fell to around $4 a gallon, and this is only after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz would be open to all commercial vessels. Is he convincing the American public that the pain at the pump isn’t real?
ELVING: He may be convincing at least some people to have patience – sure, the pain is real. But, you know, it’s still manageable – not yet so sustained as to be unbearable. And we have to say, the stock market seems to be buying it – at least so far – reaching record highs this past week. Investors seem to be betting the ceasefire agreements will hold, that it will be peace in our time and all will be well.
SIMON: The splits among President Trump’s supporters – maybe we call them former supporters at this particular point – over the war in Iran. Do you believe President Trump can bring them back into the fold?
ELVING: He may want some of them back in the fold, but he has also shown a lot of characteristic gusto in weeding some of them out, banishing them from the MAGA movement and adding personal insults as well. But on the other hand, nothing succeeds like success. So if the next round of events seems to go Trump’s way, most of his devotees may well stick with him. And that’s likely to influence a lot of these rebellious influencers quite a bit.
SIMON: NPR’s Ron Elving, thanks so much for being with us.
ELVING: Thank you, Scott.
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