MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Horwitz, Pirates, Mariners, Mets, Rushing

This week’s MLB Mailbag will tackle several Cardinals questions from readers, in addition to quandaries on the Pirates’ lineup and trade targets, the Mariners’ pitching staff and lineup needs, the Mets’ deadline approach, and Dalton Rushing‘s future in Los Angeles. (Note that questions are lightly edited for clarity.)

I’ve grouped a bundle of Cardinals-related questions together to kick this week off. Let’s dive in!

Steve asks:

Do you see the Cardinals making an effort to try to trade Dustin May at the deadline? President of baseball operations Chaim Bloom has said that they will not lose sight of the long-term planning of accumulating prospects and building for the future.

T. Hughes asks:

What would a Jordan Walker extension look like? He made more money at the derby than he will from his salary! I guess it depends on if you believe this year is for real.

Sam asks:

What sort of prospect package does Lars Nootbaar bring back? A data darling who has never quite broken through, but more than just a rental. Who are potential matches?

We’ve touched on Dustin May quite a bit in the mailbag in recent weeks, though it’s easy to see why. The Cardinals are in an odd spot — performing better than expected and contending in a season they intended to be more transitional in nature. They’ve gotten to this point with immaculate health from the pitching staff and breakouts from young stars like JJ Wetherholt and Jordan Walker, but the pitching staff looks weak. Even if they back into the playoffs, how far do we expect a May-Michael McGreevy-Andre Pallante rotation to carry them in October?

Bloom has stated in the past that he won’t lose sight of the long-term goal, as my fellow Steve points out. Shopping May feels prudent, both due to that long-term goal and the perils of holding onto him for the stretch run. The Cards could make May a qualifying offer, but they’d only get a compensatory first-round pick if he both rejected that $23MM QO and signed a free-agent deal worth more than $50MM. Neither should be considered a guarantee. May has pitched better than I anticipated heading into the season. Kudos to Bloom & Co. for getting a decent showing out of him.

However, May has one of the lengthiest injury histories in the sport and is already showing signs of wearing down. He followed his masterful one-hit shutout of a weak Padres lineup by combining for 11 1/3 innings over his next four starts. He was rocked for 13 runs on 17 hits and seven walks in that time.

May is sitting on a 4.55 ERA with an average strikeout rate, good command and a slightly better-than-average ground-ball rate. He’s been dogged by a low strand rate (64.7%) and somewhat heavy average on balls in play (.317) but has also benefited from a tiny 7.3% homer-to-flyball rate that’s well shy of the 12% league average and his career mark of 13.5%. If you want to say that May, thus far, is more deserving of an ERA in line with his 3.92 SIERA, I’d agree with that. I’d also have minimal confidence that he can keep pitching to that level going forward.

Last year’s 132 1/3 innings were by far a career-high, and he’s only 39 innings away from that mark right now. It’d take a strong, healthy finish to get a comp pick after the first round. The chances of May signing for under $50MM (and thus netting a pick after Competitive Balance Round B), accepting that pricey QO, or not holding up (health and/or performance-wise) enough to even merit a QO outweigh the chances of that best-case scenario pick after the first round.

If the Cards really want to thread the needle, they could trade May for the best available return in the next two weeks and then backfill the rotation by bringing in a veteran starter — either a rental or perhaps a younger arm with multiple seasons of club control remaining. Adding someone like Robbie Ray wouldn’t break the bank prospect-wise but could help keep them afloat in a post-May trade setting, for instance.