MLB Picks and Predictions: Why Chase Burns and the Nationals Offer Betting Value

I hope everyone had a great Memorial Day weekend! Baseball has kicked into high gear, let’s win some MLB Picks today!

Season Record 26-22-1, +1.16 Units

Reds at Mets

Chase Burns ½ Unit Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-111 FanDuel), ½ Unit Over 17.5 Outs (-110 bet365)

I couldn’t decide which one of these I liked better, so cue up one of those “Why Not Both” memes.

Burns is a budding ace facing an utterly depleted Mets lineup that was pretty bad even before half of the starters hit the IL. He’s maybe a overlooked a shade in a world where young guns Cam Schlittler and Jacob Misiorowski are whiffing the world, but Burns is right up there with them with 98.1 MPH heat, a 1.83 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He’s got a 28.2% K% fully backed by his 34.1% Whiff% that’s in the 94th percentile. As far as these specific props go, he’s notched seven or more K’s in 5 of his last 6 starts, and he’s gone at least 6 innings in six of his last seven.

The current Mets are unlikely to provide much of a roadblock. In the last week they’re slashing an insanely bad 194/.256/.306 for a 64 wRC+, with a K% of 28.7%. The only hitter who’s a major threat right now is Juan Soto and he’s missed the last two games with an illness though he’s expected back tonight. Burns seems like an excellent shot to turn in another quality outing.

Nats at Guardians

Nats F5 (-105 Caesars)

The Guardians start Joey Cantillo and that’s good news for the Nats as they’ve had major success vs. southpaws this year. They’re two best hitters are lefties, James Wood and CJ Abrams, but that has not stopped the team from rocking a 119 wRC+ in this spot, good for 3rd best in MLB. And they’ve cashed nicely on the F5 with an 11-4-3 record and 42% vs. lefty starters. The Nats are also 23-17-8, +17.8% ROI as ML underdogs and 14-8-8 30.1% in road games.

Cade Cavalli gets the ball for the Nats, and he’s having a nice but inconsistent year. We’ll take the 3.86 ERA but not so much the 1.43 WHIP. His .367 BABIP suggests a little bad luck there given that he’s not allowing particularly dangerous contact. The Nats don’t have the best defense out there however. Still, I’ll roll with the Nats in this spot.