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In their quest to regain control of both chambers of Congress, Democratic candidates are outraising Republicans in key contests that will decide the House and Senate majorities even as the national party faces record low approval ratings from voters.
As the Democratic Party reckons with its future, a handful of older incumbents face well-funded, younger primary challengers who are fueled by a surge of individual contributions. This as nearly 70 lawmakers from both parties have already announced plans to retire, run for a different office or have already lost a primary election.
For Republicans, the typical midterm headwinds that blow against the party in power are compounded by President Trump’s unpopularity and voter dissatisfaction around issues like the economy, immigration policy and the war in Iran.
At the same time, the national party’s committees and super PACs have hundreds of millions of dollars saved up that they can — and will — deploy to counteract Democrats’ enthusiasm.
Another wildcard is Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC, which has nearly $350 million cash on hand to help sway what his final two years in office could look like – if he uses it.
Here are four charts that explain the current political landscape for control of the House and Senate.
Democratic Senate candidates lead the fundraising pack
To regain control of the Senate, Democrats need to defend two seats in states that Trump won in 2024 and flip four others.
As of the most recent filing deadline, Democratic candidates have outraised Republican candidates overall in seven seats held by Republicans — Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Florida, Iowa and Texas.
In the last quarter, Democrats also reported matching or exceeding Republican fundraising totals in several Senate races, too.
Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico reported more than $27 million in receipts during the first quarter, followed by $14 million for Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff. Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper reported nearly $9 million in his primary campaign account and millions more in a joint fundraising committee.
Additionally, independent candidates aligned with the Democratic Party raised more than Republican Senate incumbents in the deep red strongholds of Montana and Nebraska last quarter.
Republicans have more money to spend — but they’ll need it
While there’s enthusiasm for Democratic candidates in competitive races, the negative view towards the national Democratic Party extends to donors, too.
The Democratic National Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, along with allied super PACs House Majority Project and Senate Majority Project have been outraised by their Republican counterparts in the 2026 campaign cycle.
The Republican National Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee, National Republican Senatorial Committee and allied super PACs Congressional Leadership Fund and Senate Leadership Fund also have roughly double the cash on hand than their Democratic counterparts.
Add in Trump’s MAGA Inc., and Republicans have nearly $850 million in the bank to defend vulnerable House and Senate races as well as pursue opportunities to pickup seats in toss-up contests.
Some older House Democratic incumbents still face well-funded young challengers
As NPR previously reported, a number of older House Democrats who have not yet opted to retire are facing younger challengers who have raised hundreds of thousands of dollars almost exclusively from individual contributions. In some cases, those young challengers have outraised the incumbent.
Nearly a dozen vulnerable incumbents fit the bill, like California Reps. Brad Sherman and Mike Thompson, as well as Massachusetts Rep. Stephen Lynch. More money does not always guarantee success in challenging a sitting lawmaker, however.
Rep. Valerie Foushee of North Carolina already won her primary against Nida Allam, despite Allam raising nearly $300,000 more. In the March 3 primary, outside groups spent a record-setting $4.2 million to influence the race, primarily to support Foushee.
Most incumbents are doing just fine
Control of the House and Senate still boils down to a relatively small number of districts, and incumbents who chose to run again almost always win.
Many sitting lawmakers do not have primary challengers, or if they do, those challengers raise very little money or attention.
This is reflected in campaign finance data: the average incumbent still running for re-election accounts for 94% of the primary fundraising and 80% of the general election fundraising for their seat.
Only 22 lawmakers report raising less than half of the money in their party’s primary in the last quarter or overall. This includes many of the vulnerable older House Democrats like Tennessee Rep. Steve Cohen and Republican Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas, who both face tough primary challenges.
One of them, former Rep. Sheila Cheriflus-McCormick, resigned April 21, 2026 before the House Ethics Committee was set to meet and decide on a punishment for violating campaign finance and ethics rules.
