Milwaukee Brewers
2025 record: 97-65 (1st in NL Central)
He gone: RHP Freddy Peralta, 3B Caleb Durbin, OF Isaac Collins, LHP Jose Quintana, RHP Nick Mears
New faces: C Gary Sanchez, RHP Brandon Sproat, SS/OF Jett Williams, INF David Hamilton
Biggest question entering Opening Day: Is their unwillingness to keep Peralta because of his pending free agency going to cost them a playoff spot and/or a chance at winning a World Series? They had an expected W/L of 99-63 in 2025, but are projected by a consensus to finish close to .500 this season. It seems harsh, but the Brewers are counting on a return to form by right-hander Brandon Woodruff (at 33), and high-percentile development by fireballer Jacob Misiorowski to anchor the rotation. Christian Yelich, at 34, would have to play a full season again — which he’s managed in three of the past four years. Jackson Chourio was nearly a four-WAR player at age 20 in 2024. He could take a big step forward offensively this season. So could William Contreras, a two-time Silver Slugger winner whose power regressed a bit in ‘25. Having Andrew Vaughn around for 150 games could mean a lot, as long as his hitting performance in ‘25 wasn’t too fluky. He’s not projected to leave spring training with the big-league team, but infielder Andrew Fischer is a good bet to be helpful as a rookie soon.
2026 outlook: The W-L record is likely to regress, and the Cubs probably will overtake them in the division, but the projections for 81-82 wins also seem way too low. Too many things would have to go wrong. Still, they’re not moving closer to winning the franchise’s first World Series.
Chicago Cubs
2025 record: 92-70 (2nd place, NL Central)
He gone: OF Kyle Tucker, RHP Brad Keller, RHP Michael Soroka, 1B Justin Turner, LHP Drew Pomeranz
New faces: 3B Alex Bregman, RHP Edward Cabrera, RHP Phil Maton, RHP Hunter Harvey, LHP Hoby Milner
Biggest question entering Opening Day: Will the starting rotation stay healthy enough, and will the arms miss enough bats come playoff time, for the Cubs to make a run at the World Series? The addition of Cabrera via offseason trade will be key here, as will the possible return of left-hander Justin Steele at some point. Both have had trouble historically staying healthy. The Cubs had good but unspectacular starting pitching a season ago, finishing in the middle of the pack in Fangraphs WAR. Lefty Matthew Boyd led the team in starts (31) and innings pitched (179 2/3) in 2025, making the All-Star team and performing wonderfully overall. He’s also 35 years old with an extensive injury history. The other projected starters, including right-hander Cade Horton, lefty Shota Imanaga, and righties Jameson Taillon and Cabrera, also have their own question marks. For one reason or another, the Cubs are crossing their fingers for all of them.
2026 outlook: The offense should be among the top 10 (or better) but how Pete Crow-Armstrong adjusts after a weak final two months of ’25 will be key. The back of the bullpen is strong with Daniel Palencia, and they added four new middle relievers in the offseason. The Cubs look good, if not great, and could compete for the World Series if they get some breaks.
Cincinnati Reds
2025 record: 83-79 (3rd place, NL Central)
He gone: RHP Nick Martinez, 2B/OF Gavin Lux, OF Austin Hays, RHP Scott Barlow, LHP Brent Suter
New faces: DH/3B Eugenio Suarez, 1B Nathaniel Lowe, OF Dane Myers, RHP Pierce Johnson, LHP Caleb Ferguson
Biggest question entering Opening Day: Do the Reds have the best starting pitching in the league? The answer likely depends on how fast rookies Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder develop. But even if they’re not immediate All-Stars, the Reds’ starting corps finished second in Fangraphs WAR in 2025. Left-handers Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo, along with Hunter Greene, Brady Singer and the rookies aren’t all household names, but they’re a formidable bunch — and they’re all under 30 years old. Cincy’s competition for best rotation includes the Phillies and Dodgers. How Greene comes through surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow will matter a lot.
2026 outlook: The Reds’ bullpen is closer to middle-of-the-road and likely will limit them come October. The offense needs to get better, but the lineup figures to improve if Sal Stewart becomes a middle-of-the-order force, if Matt McLain rebounds and if Elly De La Cruz takes a step forward at age 24. None of those are unreasonable asks.
St. Louis Cardinals
2025 record: 78-84 (4th place, NL Central)
He gone: 3B Nolan Arenado, 1B Willson Contreras, 2B Brendan Donovan, RHP Sonny Gray, RHP Miles Mikolas
New faces: 2B JJ Wetherholt, RHP Dustin May, RHP Hunter Dobbins, RHP Ryne Stanek, LHP Brandon Clarke
Biggest question entering Opening Day: How long is it going to take team president Chaim Bloom to turn this thing around? By some accounts, the Cardinals’ farm system ranks just outside of the top 10, but it’s going to take more than a few prospects to bring back the glory days. Oli Marmol is in place as the skipper, and Bloom’s people have been running the minors and development. Wetherholt has a chance to win NL Rookie of the Year, and Masyn Winn, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera make up a portion of a potential winning core of position players. Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy can be major league starters, though their upside might have limits. Aside from them, expect a lot of turnover in the next several years.
2026 outlook: The Cards won 78 games this past season and probably will be lucky to win more than 68 this time. And it might be worse. A Cardinals team hasn’t lost 100 games or more since 1908, but this one is going to come uncomfortably close — and that’s if things go well, relatively speaking.
Pittsburgh Pirates
2025 record: 71-91 (5th place, NL Central)
He gone: OF/DH Andrew McCutchen, OF Tommy Pham, RHP Johan Oviedo, RHP Mike Burrows
New faces: OF/1B Ryan O’Hearn, DH Marcell Ozuna, 2B Brandon Lowe, OF Jake Mangum, RHP Jose Urquidy
Biggest question entering Opening Day: Is Paul Skenes still going to be on the roster the next time the Pirates win a playoff game? At one point in time, into the second decade of the 2000s, it seemed like the Pirates would never have a winning season again. But the Gerrit Cole/Andrew McCutchen teams yielded three straight second-place finishes and postseason berths. It IS possible to win in the PNC Park era. But it’s been 11 years now. Pirates owner Bob Nutting finally spent some revenue-sharing dough this offseason, and their lineup is not bad, potentially, thanks in part to the additions of O’Hearn, Ozuna and Lowe. If slugger Bryan Reynolds can bounce back, and if Spencer Horwitz can clear the effects of his hamate bone injury, they’ll score a decent amount of runs.
2026 outlook: The Bucs risk wasting most of Skenes’ prime if they don’t start competing soon. Is there any chance they can make the postseason this year? PECOTA and Fangraphs projections say they could finish above .500, so yes. If star pupil Konnor Griffin gets promoted and runs away with NL Rookie of the Year, if Bubba Chandler gets strong results over a full season, and if Oneil Cruz snaps out of his funk, they could reach the mid- or upper-80s in victories.
–Field Level Media
