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Swing voters in North Carolina say they are frustrated with President Trump and the state of the economy, but aren’t ready to abandon him or his party as the midterms inch closer.
NPR observed two online focus groups on Tuesday featuring 12 voters in North Carolina who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and then Trump in 2024. These focus groups were conducted by messaging and market research firms Engagious and Sago as part of the Swing Voter Project.
Seven of the voters who participated identified as independents, four said they were Republicans, and one identified as a Democrat. That’s a more Republican-leaning cohort than prior months’ focus groups.
Here are three takeaways:
1. Trump is viewed as out of touch, but not weak
Half of these voters said they overall disapprove of the job Trump is doing. And a lot of that frustration has to do with the fact that they do not think Trump is attuned to the growing economic pain that many Americans are feeling as the war in Iran continues.
Eight of 12 voters said Trump is “out of touch with their economic concerns,” and nine said they are more economically anxious now than they were before Trump took office last year. These numbers are not statistically significant, because this isn’t a scientific poll, but focus groups do provide some insight into what is showing up in polling.
“I don’t think he really understands the American people, what we are going through, what we’re suffering with,” said April M., referencing high gas prices. (All participants agreed to be part of the focus groups on the condition that they be identified by their first names and last initials only.)
Some voters were particularly upset when they were shown this recent comment Trump made to reporters: “The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran, they can’t have a nuclear weapon,” he said. “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon.”
“I’m glad he’s concerned about the nuclear weapon,” Leslie B. said, “but what about people needing to put food on the table and get to their jobs?”
But the other half of these swing voters remain pretty aligned with Trump.
Rich Thau, president of Engagious and the moderator of the groups, said many of these voters are happy that Trump has delivered on some of his promises, like securing the border.
“They’re focusing on the larger picture of what he’s done on immigration as opposed to the specific incidents that got him in a lot of hot water,” he said. “And [secondly], despite everything that they’re unhappy with — and there’s certainly a lot they complained about — they still see him as a strong leader.”
When asked if they see Trump as “strong” or “weak,” nine of the 12 said strong. None said weak.
“If he says he’s going to do something, he does it, period,” Vikki B. said. “Whether you like it or not, he does it. That’s why I feel like he’s a strong president.”
Thau said he thinks this portrayal of strength, even when it is chaotic, is why many of these voters are sticking around.
“The image he portrays is such an important part of their support for him,” he said. “That to me is a really important observation: that it’s not just about the policies and whether he succeeds or not, it’s how he comes across as a leader. And he never, ever, ever tries to display weakness.”
2. Democratic infighting is turning voters off
Despite the frustration with the economy, no voters in these groups said they were going to specifically vote for Democrats in the upcoming election in an effort to respond to Trump.
Barrette G., who said he disapproves of the job Trump is doing, said he thinks a “protest is a wasted vote.” He wasn’t thinking of strategically backing Democrats.
“You have to look at the individual candidate and what do you think they’re going to do,” he said. “What are they bringing to the table? Whose interest do you feel like they’re going to represent?”
He said he doesn’t think Democrats are going to represent his interest by combating Trump.
“Right now, I feel like the Democrats as a party, I feel like they’ve strayed from the roots of America,” he said. “I think they’re serving the fringes too much, but then again, I think a lot of it is theatrics. At the end of the day, I don’t think either party is serving the middle class anymore.”
Several voters had a negative perception of the Democratic Party because they view it as fractured.
“I think they need to come together,” said April M. “I think everybody is going their own way. They don’t know what to do. They are so upset with what the Republicans are doing. They don’t think to come together themselves to be stronger so they can outdo what the Republicans are doing.”
Added Vivian T.: “I believe they need to show a united front.”
3. AI is a growing threat, and voters want the government to intervene
For all the splits over political support, the focus groups were aligned over artificial intelligence.
While voters see some benefits to AI, most have some fears about the effects the technology will have on jobs and humanity writ large.
Steve M. said his big fears are the “displacement of large sectors of jobs,” as well as the effect AI is having on students.
“It’s teaching an entire generation that they don’t need to have original thoughts, think critically,” he said, “because AI is going to do it for you.”
Steve said he’d ideally like to see the technology “shut down,” but that is unlikely to happen. Instead, he said he’d like to see global leaders work together to regulate the technology, which many of the voters agreed with.
“What that says to me is they don’t see another way forward,” Thau said.
Thau told NPR that while many of these voters have concerns, there is also “a sense of a lack of agency.” He said there is a sense among them that “there’s not much that they can do about it themselves,” so they are hoping political leaders intervene.
“They think this is the only way that we’ll get anything meaningful done on AI,” Thau said. “And they’re concerned about it. Profoundly concerned.”
