With wins in three federal byelections this month, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals have moved from a minority to a slim majority in the House of Commons. This after five members of Parliament — four Conservatives and one NDP — broke ranks and crossed the floor in recent months.
Now, a
finds that Pierre Poilievre’s popularity as Conservative Party leader, while still strong, has eroded from last summer.
The latest data from this month shows that 57 per cent of past CPC voters want Poilievre to lead the party into the next election. However, the same question in a poll last August found 68 per cent of past CPC voters sharing that opinion.
At the same time, 30 per cent of respondents in the new poll thought Poilievre should step down or otherwise be replaced before the next election. Last August, only 18 per cent thought so. The number who said they were undecided or otherwise couldn’t answer remained roughly the same, at 13 per cent in the new poll versus 14 per cent last August.
Angus Reid polls have never shown Poilievre to be popular among a majority of the general public in his time as leader. The current poll found that 60 per cent of Canadians felt unfavourable or very unfavourable toward him, while just 33 per cent were favourable or very favourable, and seven per cent were not sure.
Among Conservative voters, however, three-quarters said they had favourable or very favourable opinions about him. But this too was down from last summer, when he peaked at an 88 per cent favourable rating in June.
Asked about the Liberals’ shift to majority status, the Canadian public was almost evenly split on whether this was a good thing or a bad thing for the country. The poll found that 44 per cent said it was good because it would bring greater stability to the House, while 42 per cent thought it was bad because it no longer represented what the electorate voted for in last year’s federal election.
Not surprisingly, those numbers were very different within party lines. Four in five Liberal voters (80 per cent) thought the new majority was a good thing, while an almost equal number of Conservative supporters (81 per cent) characterized it as bad.
Canadians also had a wide range of opinions as to why the MPs crossed the floor to the Liberal side. Asked to choose which reasons they thought were a major influence, 42 per cent said it was that the Liberals are an appealing option right now, while 33 said it was a cynical move for job security, 45 per cent said Poilievre was pushing people away from his party, and 28 per cent it was because a majority government is needed in these uncertain times. (The numbers add to more than 100 per cent because multiple responses were allowed.)
Conservative voters were more likely to choose cynical job security as the major reason for crossing the floor, with 47 per cent behind that option, and 21 per cent or less for each of the others.
The poll was carried out from April 15 to 17 among a randomized sample of 1,646 Canadian adults. A probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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