Poll: Checking In On The AL Rookie Of The Year Race

Kevin McGonigle was a consensus top-five prospect entering the 2026 season. Most sources considered him the most promising minor leaguer in any American League organization. When it became clear that he would break the Tigers’ roster out of spring training, his chances of winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award shot up. 

McGonigle’s early performance only solidified his status as the ROY favorite. The young infielder went 4-for-5 with two doubles, two runs, and two RBI on Opening Day. He has hardly slowed down since. In 129 games, the freshly 22-year-old ranks among the top 20 AL hitters with an .802 OPS and a 128 wRC+. His power stroke is still a work in progress, but he has turned exceptional bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline into a .379 on-base percentage, fifth in the Junior Circuit. Combine that with strong baserunning and capable defense at both third base and shortstop, and the result is one of the most valuable players in baseball. Forget Rookie of the Year – I’m confident McGonigle will earn down-ballot MVP votes this fall. And yet… perhaps I shouldn’t dismiss the ROY conversation so quickly. McGonigle is having a tremendous season, but he isn’t the only AL rookie who looks like a star in the making. 

The industry at large wasn’t nearly as confident in Munetaka Murakami over the offseason as it was in McGonigle. The eight-year, $150MM extension McGonigle signed a few weeks after his debut is the kind of deal many thought Murakami would land as a free agent. Instead, the NPB superstar had to settle for two years and $34MM. That’s a prove-it deal if ever there was one, but it didn’t take him long to do just that.  

Murakami has only played 98 games, the result of a hamstring strain that cost him six weeks in the first half. Despite that, his 29 home runs are tied for fifth in the American League. His 74 walks rank seventh. Thanks to his power and discipline, the White Sox first baseman also sits among the AL’s top 10 qualified batters in OPS (.859) and wRC+ (138). There’s little doubt that Murakami has been the best rookie hitter in the majors this year.

Still, McGonigle holds a substantial lead over Murakami in every version of WAR for three reasons: he’s a better baserunner, he fields more valuable positions, and he’s played about 30 more games. Some might see that as a definitive argument in McGonigle’s favor. Others might contend that baserunning, defense, and playing time don’t matter quite as much in this conversation as what a player can do with the stick. 

How about what a player can do on the mound? Parker Messick is the latest starting pitching success story out of Cleveland. During his prospect days, most sources saw the southpaw as a low-risk, low-ceiling back-end starter. Even after his spectacular seven-start debut in 2025, evaluators were skeptical that he had the stuff to sustain that kind of performance. Yet, over the last 365 days, the only qualified AL pitcher with a lower ERA is 2026 Cy Young front-runner Cam Schlittler. 

Messick put up a 2.72 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 39 2/3 innings last August and September. He has followed that up with a 2.50 ERA and 156 strikeouts over 155 frames in his first full big league season. Those are Cy Young-caliber numbers. In fact, Messick still has an outside shot at the Cy if Schlittler and Dylan Cease struggle in September. All three pitchers sit within one-third of a run of one another in ERA. They’re close enough to each other in every version of WAR that the difference could be negligible when all is said and done. If Messick is a dark-horse Cy Young contender, surely he belongs in the Rookie of the Year conversation as well. 

Comparing pitchers to position players isn’t easy; they just don’t have many stats in common. The different flavors of WAR generally support McGonigle over Messick, but the gap between their totals isn’t large enough to make for a compelling argument. Meanwhile, Baseball Savant’s run value favors Messick. As for Murakami, his ROY case requires looking past metrics that purport to measure overall value. That only makes it harder to compare him to a player like Messick who earns his living from the other side of the ball. 

When I wrote about the NL Rookie of the Year race earlier this week, more than three-quarters of MLBTR readers voted for either Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt or Reds slugger Sal Stewart as the most deserving choice. Mets starter Nolan McLean received far less support. That doesn’t bode well for Messick’s chances in today’s poll. Messick has better numbers than McLean, but McGonigle and Murakami are also outperforming their closest NL counterparts. 

Indeed, the ROY competition is close in both leagues, but there’s no denying the AL has the stronger rookie class. Beyond McGonigle, Murakami, and Messick, names like Tristan Peters, Chase DeLauter, Payton Tolle, and Walbert Ureña have been turning heads all season. Right now, it’s hard to see the case for any of them over the aforementioned front-runners, but a strong September for some (and a slow September for others) could easily change that. 

So, with all these exciting young players to consider, I want to know what our readers are thinking. Will McGonigle’s all-around efforts earn him the hardware? Will BBWAA voters be more impressed by Murakami’s powerful swing or Messick’s maturity on the mound? Or will another candidate emerge as the best choice over the final weeks of the season? Have your say in the polls below. 

Images courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Patrick Gorski, and Ken Blaze (Imagn Images via Reuters Connect).