A lot of Democrats are willing to sacrifice Black voting power to beat the GOP.
In the two weeks since the Supreme Court significantly narrowed a key provision of the Voting Rights Act, Republicans have kicked off a fresh round of redistricting across the South. Their aim is to dismantle majority-minority districts, which they’ve long argued are unconstitutional, and to try to keep control of the House.
New results from The POLITICO Poll show many Democrats want their party leaders to fight back hard — even if it means breaking up districts designed to protect the power of Black voters and other minority communities.
In theory, Democrats want to keep those districts intact. When given no context on the recent Supreme Court decision, a 54 percent majority of people who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 say it is more important to protect the voting power of Black voters and other minorities, even if it means Democrats draw fewer seats.
But that number changes significantly when the question is asked in the context of the Supreme Court ruling and Republican gerrymandering — and a 45 percent plurality instead say that Democrats must counter GOP efforts, “even if it means reducing the number of majority-minority districts.”
Taken together, the poll results reveal that Republicans’ aggressive redistricting is testing Democrats’ appetite for a maximalist posture in response — and so far, many appear willing to embrace it to win the House. They’re even willing to throw away traditional liberal principles such as boosting the electoral power of voters of color in an effort to fight fire with fire.
“Do I think you should do all of these carve outs? No. But do I think what we’ve just witnessed should have happened? No. Do I think that the Supreme Court should have come down with Callais? No,” said Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.). “At some point you do have to stop and say, ‘This is madness, and all this is doing is unraveling democracy.’”
But Democrats’ conversations “probably will have to” involve carving up majority-minority districts, said Kamlager-Dove. “It’s existential at this point, and this is a larger battle that we’re fighting for.”
It’s a stunning admission from a Black lawmaker who represents a majority-Hispanic Los Angeles district: Defeating Republicans might be more important than protecting districts like hers.
And it’s a real possibility the party would have to deploy the tactic if it hopes to stand a chance against the most aggressive Republican gerrymandering possible. To draw House seats with the best margins for the party — especially in states like Illinois and New York — district lines would likely need to be altered in a way that packs large numbers of Black voters into red-leaning areas in order to make them bluer.
It’s not just a few Democrats switching their minds. Consider the Harris voters who initially say they would protect majority-minority districts: When asked about countering the GOP, they split roughly evenly, with 46 percent saying it’s more important to draw more blue seats and 41 percent saying the majority-minority districts should be kept together.
The survey, conducted by Public First, sheds new light on an emerging front in the gerrymandering war that has spread across the nation. At least nine states will use new maps this fall, with others still weighing last-minute gerrymandering before the midterms. Many more are debating doing so in the lead up to 2028, as mapmaking rapidly becomes a top priority for both parties.
The poll suggests people of color are more willing to accept the trade-off of having fewer majority-minority districts if it means beating Republicans, though margins of error are higher with the smaller sample sizes for this group.
Pluralities of Black (42 percent), Hispanic (45 percent) and Asian American (48 percent) voters who either identified as Democrats or voted for Harris in 2024 — say it is more important to draw more blue seats, even if it means reducing the number of majority-minority districts. White Democrats and Harris voters appeared slightly less likely to support carving up the districts, with 39 percent supporting such a response, 33 percent opposing it and 28 percent unsure.
Some Democratic leaders reject that drawing politically beneficial maps and preserving majority-minority districts are mutually exclusive.
“As the person that draws the maps and stares at the data, I’m telling you that is not a binary choice,” said John Bisognano, the president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.
“The Democratic Party has always basically been able to win elections, ensure that we are able to be in power in different states because of Black voters,” California Assemblymember Mia Bonta, a Democrat who’s also a Black Latina, said during a news conference. As Democrats push for more aggressive gerrymanders, she said, the party must guarantee “we do not forget and do not disregard the importance of making sure that Black voters are at the center of that.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is ratcheting up pressure on his colleagues to redraw maps ahead of 2028, told POLITICO that the maps in California and Virginia show a “model for moving forward that won’t result in the dilution of Black representation.”
Meanwhile, Republicans are eager to amplify the Democratic divisions over mapmaking, as the party continues to go all-in on drawing favorable House districts in an effort to shore up the party’s razor-thin House majority.
“Those numbers seem to suggest there’s not a unified position on the path forward for Democrats on this issue,” said Adam Kincaid, president of the National Republican Redistricting Trust. “I think it shows a split in their coalition, and they’re going to need to have everybody on board in order to be successful in repealing or changing these redistricting commissions over the next couple years.”
POLITICO’s Calen Razor and Lindsey Holden contributed to this report.
