Much has changed since the Sputnik launched the space race between the Soviets and the Americans, but this generation is witnessing a new one, as thrilling as the era of Yuri Gagarin and Neil Armstrong. In this case, China and the United States are racing to set foot on lunar gray dust before 2030. And although humans are already heading back to the Moon, as we saw with NASA’s successful Artemis 2 mission, the most important flag in this phase will be the one planted by robotic probes at the lunar south pole, where the real prize lies: frozen water. But after a decade of sticking to their plans, the Chinese had to postpone the Chang’e 7 launch on Sunday, a seemingly simple delay that could flip the balance of the race.
The China National Space Administration announced the postponement sine die of its most ambitious mission to the lunar south pole in a brief statement that, given Chinese opacity, has generated much speculation. The probe was already mounted on its carrier rocket, ready for launch, when a tropical storm forced cancellation “because safety conditions were not met.”
In a routine launch, a weather delay would normally mean only a setback of a few weeks, until Earth and the Moon return to a favorable alignment for a new window. But Chang’e 7 is destined for the lunar south pole, where lighting conditions are critical to ensure a safe landing. With the Sun low on the horizon, which increases terrain contrasts and exaggerates reliefs, trajectory calculations for the first months of 2027 will likely need to be redone.
Some specialists also suggest the spacecraft might not have been in perfect condition. Especially after the August 10 explosion of its Long March 7 rocket, which blew up just after liftoff from the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Center. The new space race is proving as difficult as the last one: U.S. plans have been delayed many times and NASA has had to rethink much of its strategy while racing ahead.
What does the Chinese delay mean? If everything had gone to plan, Chang’e 7 would have arrived at its target in November. Now it gives the U.S. an opportunity to take the lead. The American rival robotic probe is a project from Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos’s space company: Lunar Base 1, with the Blue Moon Mark 1 Endurance lander. Although it was supposed to launch in fall 2026, it now won’t fly until the first quarter of 2027, if all goes well.
There is room for both missions, but the first to arrive will gain an important strategic advantage. Both are aiming for the area around the Shackleton crater, a cold, dark and rugged terrain dominated by shadows and hazardous topography. No one has achieved a soft landing in that part of the Moon. Whoever begins deploying vehicles and robots there first can reduce their rival’s options for accessing the best resources.
Chang’e program success
Little known to the general public, the Chang’e lunar probe program is one of the great achievements of China’s space effort. The first in the series launched in 2007, a modest orbiter. Since then, in less than 20 years and with barely six missions, it has produced extraordinary results.
The Chang’e probes (named after the goddess of the Moon in Chinese mythology) have orbited and photographed our satellite, deployed small rovers on both the near and far sides, returned samples from both hemispheres to Earth using fully automated methods, set up a communications-satellite constellation for the far side to enable contact with future vehicles sent there, installed a container or “biosphere” on the Moon to germinate seeds (which lasted briefly due to a heater failure) and, in addition, completed the program with numerous astronomical observations.
And what will Chang’e 7 try to do when it arrives? Above all, reach the Moon, enter orbit, and spend several months mapping and closely exploring the landing area in search of the flattest terrain possible to set down on.
During that time the orbiter will carry out astronomical observation tasks. On board are half a dozen instruments provided by other space agencies: a camera to map surface composition, contributed by Egypt and Bahrain; a Thai cosmic-ray detector; and a Swiss solar radiation monitor. Also mounted on the lander is a telescope for Milky Way studies (courtesy of universities in Hong Kong and Hawaii), a Russian lunar-dust detector and an Italian laser reflector to help locate the spacecraft once it is on the ground. China maintains an extensive international scientific cooperation program.
The landing zone is near the Shackleton crater, close to the south pole. It is one of the many permanently shadowed pits: light and the slight heat of the Sun arrive so obliquely that they never reach its bottom. Temperatures are extremely low, about 200 degrees Celsius below zero. That favors the preservation of ice in the soil, the Moon’s hidden treasure.
How much ice? Years ago NASA sent a twin-impact experiment to that region. The first object — a spent stage of the carrier rocket — would create a cloud of ejecta and the second, plunging immediately into it, would analyze its composition. The result suggested between 5% and 10% water by mass in the material thrown up.
What form that ice takes remains to be seen. It could be an icy layer, but more likely it will be mixed with the regolith, like dirty mud. Any exploitation of that water would require heating, filtering, and purifying it. Not an easy task on the Moon.
In any case, Chang’e will land outside the Shackleton crater where there is enough light for its descent cameras to spot and avoid dangerous obstacles. Once on the surface, it will begin exploring the crater’s interior, which could become the most spectacular part of the project.
It is impossible to send a wheeled rover down the steep slopes of the crater. The wheels would lose traction and the vehicle would slide to the bottom. Instead, Chinese engineers have designed a hopper probe that moves by making leaps. Powered by small rocket engines, the vehicle will jump up to a height of about 15 kilometers (9.3 miles), enough to clear the crater walls. With the Moon’s low gravity, the impact will be cushioned by a four-legged landing gear with an impact-absorption system.
This hopper is designed to enter dark places where traditional rovers cannot go: no lunar mission has previously used an explorer conceived specifically to jump into permanently shadowed craters.
Once on the surface, a scraper will try to expose part of the icy layer for a spectrometer to examine, searching for the characteristic signatures of hydrogen and oxygen molecules. Then new hops and further analysis sessions will follow.
Confirmation of water in the Moon’s southern polar region already exists. It was a discovery confirmed from orbit in 2009 by India’s Chandrayaan 1 probe, equipped with a NASA detector.
If Chang’e 7’s prospecting in Shackleton succeeds and confirms the existence of tons of frozen water, two possibilities open up: purify it, if feasible, for human consumption, or split it to produce fuel (hydrogen) and breathable oxygen. In the future, when permanent bases are established on our satellite, the barren Moon could become the solar system’s gas station.
The Chinese delay has now reopened the competition and serves as a reminder that, half a century after Armstrong, the Moon still resists those who intend to conquer it. Especially in one of the most hostile environments of our space neighborhood.
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