Infielder Luis Arraez is a logical trade candidate but recently expressed an openness to staying in San Francisco with an extension instead. There hasn’t been any indication the Giants are looking to extend Arraez and Justice delos Santos of The Mercury News reports that there have been no formal extension talks between Arraez and the club.
A trade has always seemed the most likely outcome and this report adds to that framing. Arraez is an impending free agent, as he was signed to a one-year deal with a $12MM guarantee. He’s having arguably the best campaign of his life. His batting average has returned to a very strong .326 mark this year. He had dipped to .292 last year, still a strong figure but low for him personally.
Perhaps more importantly, he has been playing second base and doing it well. He played that spot a decent amount earlier in his career but didn’t perform especially well and gradually spent more time at first base. The Giants gave him a chance to return to the keystone and have been rewarded. Defensive Runs Saved still considers him to be subpar but Arraez has been credited with ten Outs Above Average, second only to JJ Wetherholt at the position.
With the Giants sitting on a 42-57 record and 9.5 games back of a playoff spot, they are one of the few clear sellers in the league. With Arraez a few months from returning to free agency, he’s a logical trade candidate.
Other possibilities have been floated, with some fans hoping for the club to extend Arraez. As mentioned, the player himself has said he is open to such a scenario. However, that path is much more convoluted. For one thing, the Giants are currently trying to free up future payroll space. Various reports have indicated they are very open to moving guys with big contracts like Matt Chapman, Willy Adames or Rafael Devers. Adding another deal to the books by extending Arraez would go counter to that.
Extending Arraez and trading Chapman is a preferred path for some fans, but that’s not easy to pull off. Chapman is still owed $25MM annually through 2030, meaning his deal will still pay him $100MM over four seasons after this one. Since he is 33 years old, is having a down year and is currently on the injured list, that would be a hard contract to move. Chapman also has a full no-trade clause and has spent most of his life in California, which could add further complications to lining up a trade.
It’s also worth considering Casey Schmitt. A natural infielder having a breakout season at the plate, he has played a lot of left field this year due to the club having Chapman, Adames, Arraez, Devers and Bryce Eldridge filling up the infield positions and designated hitter slot. A trade of either Chapman or Arraez would open up an infield spot for him, giving the Giants motivation to move one. And as mentioned, trading Arraez is easier. Trading Schmitt is another possibility that some people have floated but he is controlled for three more seasons and won’t qualify for arbitration until this winter. That’s valuable for a club clearly worried about its budget.
On top of the roster concerns, there are reasons to be skeptical of Arraez going forward. Despite his strong season, he has a long track record of shaky defense and lower-body injuries. For a guy who is going to turn 30 next year, there would be some risk in investing in him for the long term, especially for a club that is already concerned about its older and expensive players.
Put it all together and a trade of Arraez seems to be the most likely outcome. The Giants could pivot in the coming weeks, particularly if they don’t get offers to their liking, but the smart money seems to be on a trade. He’s the club’s best chance at salvaging something from a lost season. Robbie Ray is their other notable impending free agent but he is having a so-so performance and is making $25MM this year.
Arraez has said it would be his preference to stay at second base if traded, though he doesn’t have much say in the matter. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection in his deal. The Giants should be looking to get the best trade return, regardless of which team offers it. The team that ultimately wins the bidding may prefer him at first base or designated hitter. Teams like the Rays, Red Sox and Rangers are in contention and could use some help at the keystone. The Guardians, Twins and Diamondbacks could use upgrades at first base and/or designated hitter.
Photo courtesy of Robert Edwards, Imagn Images
