OTTAWA — An independent Quebec would take the “necessary steps” to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), according to a “blue book” recently presented by the Parti Québécois (PQ).
The 524-page document, le Livre bleu sur l’indépendance, discusses a wide swath of scenarios on what that a new Quebec republic would look like and its international commitments, should the PQ form power and successfully secede from Canada.
The PQ seems to be banking on the idea that the United States and the rest of Canada will not want to have a territory the size of Quebec remain undefended.
“Given its privileged geographical location in North America, its proximity to the United States, and the strategic issues related to the St. Lawrence River and Northern Quebec, we believe that an independent Quebec would have every interest in joining NATO,” it reads.
Later, it adds: “From this perspective, Canada and the United States would in no way benefit from creating a breach in the defence of North American territory by excluding Quebec from the defence mechanisms of the North American and transatlantic space.”
Defence Minister David McGuinty would not say if an independent Quebec joining NATO and NORAD was realistic or feasible when asked by National Post last week.
“I think the answer to that is right now we’re consumed with working our way forward in our relationship with the alliances that exist, and we’re rebuilding, rearming, and reinvesting in the Canadian Armed Forces in a way that we’ve never seen before,” he said.
Experts consulted for this article said it would not be impossible for an independent Quebec to join those military and political alliances — but it would be complicated.
Stephen Saideman, head of the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University, is of the view that it would be “too difficult” to do in short order.
“One of the things that any secession movement does, when they’re trying to get support, is to make it seem as if it’ll be costless, that they’ll get all the things they want, and nothing will change that they don’t want,” Saideman said in an interview.
Justin Massie, professor of political science at l’Université du Québec à Montréal and director of the Network for Strategic Analysis, praised the PQ’s “very serious effort.”
“It’s not something they wrote on a napkin on the corner of the table,” he said of the party’s “blue book” which has been in the making since 2023. “They put some thought into this.”
Still, many roadblocks remain before a new country could aspire to join NATO and NORAD.
To start, Quebec would need to have an independent army. The PQ claims it will invite Canadian soldiers living in Quebec to join the new force and pledge allegiance to the new republic. The party estimates that would represent about 20,000 military personnel.
Massie said there is no firm evidence to prove that number, adding that no one has ever polled Quebecers in the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) on whether they support sovereignty and if it is in line with the rest of Quebec which is about 30 per cent.
An independent Quebec would also need to be recognized by peer countries. To join NATO, that means finding consensus among the 32 member states to accept Quebec as one of them.
Saideman said countries like the United Kingdom, Spain or France which have their own secessionist movements will “certainly not going to want to make it appear to be easy and costless for countries to secede,” so it might not be inclined to support Quebec’s adhesion.
Massie said the veto on Quebec joining NATO might instead come from Canada.
“Canada would be an odd position, because it probably would have pressure from the United States to not have a gap in North American defence by having a Quebec without any sort of alliance or interoperability for the defence of its territory,” he explained.
Then, there are questions about the military assets that an independent Quebec would have to fulfill its obligations towards NORAD in monitoring its aerospace and waters.
Massie said Quebec already has a logistics hub in Montreal and an air force base in Bagotville but would need to build a naval base because it could no longer rely on the one in Halifax. Quebec would also need its land army, which could be located in Valcartier.
Saideman said Quebec won’t be able to just presume that the aircraft in Bagotville, for instance, will be theirs automatically.
The PQ says in its “blue book” that any increase or decrease in the transfer of military assets to Quebec should be offset by an increase or decrease of assuming Canada’s debt.
Finally, there is the cost of business of being a member of NATO or NORAD.
For Quebec to reach NATO’s current two per cent of GDP defence spending target — with a GDP of $661 billion — that would amount to over $13 billion this year only, said Massie. To get to the five per cent spending target by 2035, that would cost over $30 billion, he said.
As a part of NORAD, Quebec would also be in the same dilemma that Canada is right now vis-à-vis the United States regarding the continuing acquisition of F-35s, as well as the talks about the Golden Dome which is expected to cost North America over one trillion.
Ultimately, in an independent Quebec, Massie said there will be more pressing issues to sort out, such as currency, freedom of movement, the use of Canadian passports or not.
He doubts that national security will be at the top of the list.
National Post
calevesque@postmedia.com
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