OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney is going to be doing much more this summer than flipping burgers and pancakes.
With the looming deadline of Alberta’s pipeline application, a referendum on the horizon, trade discussions to decide the future of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) and several MP resignations in the coming weeks which will lead to byelections, he is bound to have a lot on his plate.
And if Canada’s inflation numbers take hold, the food on that plate might be even more expensive.
“This is not going to be a just a barbecue circuit for Mark Carney this summer,” said Andrew Enns, Leger’s executive vice-president, in an interview with National Post.
Still, nearly half of Canadians would vote Liberal, according to a new Postmedia-Leger poll . The Liberals continue to lead with 48 per cent support among decided voters, down two points since June 1, while the Conservatives remain stable at 34 per cent.
A majority of Canadians remain satisfied with the federal government with 57 per cent, up three points since June 1, while 36 per cent of Canadians are dissatisfied.
Enns said he does not expect a lot of movement in these polling numbers during the summer months, because Canadians aren’t paying as close attention to politics.
But that doesn’t mean that there won’t be lots happening in the background.
Here’s what Canadians can expect while they’re at the cottage or in the pool.
A new pipeline to the West Coast?
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has vowed to submit an application for a new oil pipeline project to the Major Projects Office by July 1 — and is reportedly on track to do so.
Once the project is submitted, the onus will be on the Carney government to greenlight this project by October 1, which happens to be just before the Alberta referendum on whether to stay within Canada or hold another vote on whether to separate from the country.
“It’s largely discretionary on the government of Canada to designate it as a national interest project,” said George Vegh, former chair of the Canada Energy Regulator.
“It’s a very centralized decision, so cabinet makes that decision, and we all know ‘the cabinet’ means ‘the Prime Minister’s Office’ in today’s world,” he continued.
“So, it’s a decision by the Prime Minister’s Office.”
It is still unclear whether Alberta will have a private proponent for the pipeline, or which route it will take to the B.C. coast.
Vegh said that the memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Canada and Alberta mentions that the future pipeline would be constructed and financed by the private sector, but that the MOU is not binding.
Vegh pointed to the Trans Mountain expansion, which was ultimately paid for by taxpayers, and said it is not unusual to have publicly owned projects in the regulatory world.
The proposed new oil pipeline is bound to raise opposition from Indigenous and environmental groups, who are prepared to go to the courts to halt the project.
“It’s not going through,” said Anna Johnston, lawyer at West Coast Environmental Law during a press conference on Parliament Hill on June 9. “It’ll be so vociferously opposed, and there will be so much legal risk associated with it — it will never get built.”
To review or not to review CUSMA
July 1 is also the deadline for Canada, Mexico and the United States to renew their trade agreement known as CUSMA for another 16 years, withdraw from the deal altogether, or continue with the ongoing trade deal for 10 years with rolling annual reviews.
Canada and Mexico have already signalled they are ready to extend CUSMA for another 16 years. U.S. President Donald Trump has mused about terminating the agreement two times in recent weeks, suggesting his country would be “better without” CUSMA.
But a Canadian government official, speaking on a not-for-attribution basis, said that view does not reflect what has been discussed privately with U.S. trade officials. The official described the talks between Canada and the U.S. as “substantive” in the past few weeks.
All three countries will hold their first trilateral meeting on July 1 to discuss their views.
Brian Clow, who served as deputy chief of staff to former prime minister Justin Trudeau, said the Americans are now starting to engage “in a way that they weren’t previously” and the July 1 meeting might have the effect of causing additional conversations this summer.
But his expectation is that the summer is going to come and go without any agreement.
“The main reason I’m pessimistic is we’re just not seeing any give from the Americans,” he said. “The Americans want a whole bunch of unilateral concessions from Canada, and they’re not signalling that they’re prepared to lower their 232 tariffs.”
“So, if that’s the case, and if that remains the U.S. position, what is the incentive for Canada to ultimately do a deal?”
The most likely scenario, for now, seems to be the continuation of CUSMA with annual reviews. Clow said the situation would be “manageable” in his view, compared to the worst-case scenarios that were floated when Trump came back to office.
“If it turns out that no deal is possible… it’s not the end of the world, and the last 16 months have kind of shown that,” he said.
Inflation warning signs ahead?
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.2 per cent in May, up from an increase of 2.8 per cent in April, according to Statistics Canada. The uptick is due to rising gas prices because of the war in Iran but also because of the surging price of fresh fruits and vegetables.
Notably, it is the first time the inflation rate has risen above three per cent since 2023.
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said he has seen “no evidence of generalized inflation” and that the May numbers reflect the rise in global energy prices. He said the recent peace deal between the U.S. and Iran is already helping to drive down oil prices.
“The thing that’s probably most disconcerting right now, going into the summer, is probably that inflation number for the government, because it has crept up now the last couple months,” said Enns.
He said if those inflation numbers hold through the summer, that could cause some grumblings among Canadians and cause some concern for the government.
“If we see three per cent plus inflation again in July, (and) that maybe the Bank of Canada has to make a move on interest rates, that puts the government now back into kind of a very difficult situation, I would suggest,” he said.
Enns also said higher inflation numbers could give more credence to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s message that Mark Carney is not delivering results on affordability.
“I think a lot of Canadians would agree, even if they don’t like Mr. Poilievre, that, he’s right, things aren’t getting a lot better,” he said. “They may start to sort of give him a little more credit as time goes on… And I think that’s what he’s sort of banking on.”
Enns reiterated that Canadians tend to not pay as much attention to the news during the warmer months, but they might once they realize how expensive school supplies and other items as they come back from vacation and prepare for the back-to-school period.
“I think that’s where it’ll be very interesting to see, you know, how the government’s made out on some of these big files, and whether or not Canadians are still feeling pretty good about things,” he said.
Byelections galore
The House of Commons will be six MPs short in the fall — three from the government benches and three from the opposition — so parties will want to fill these seats.
Former Liberal minister Jonathan Wilkinson, who is becoming Canada’s ambassador to the European Union, and former Bloc Québécois MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay, who will be running for a provincial seat for the Parti Québécois, resigned as of June 19.
Liberal MPs Steven Guilbeault and Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice and Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall are expected to resign later this summer.
The governing Liberals will have six months to call byelections. Already, some current and former Liberal staffers are raising their hands to replace some of the departing MPs.
Braeden Caley, deputy chief of staff to Mark Carney, reportedly wants to run for Wilkinson’s riding of North Vancouver—Capilano, while Claire Seaborn, a former Wilkinson aide, is seeking to run in the Toronto riding of Beaches—East York.
The Bloc, still reeling from their loss in a spring byelection in Quebec, has already announced that Alexandre Curzi, an executive in the province’s cultural sector, will represent their party in Boulerice’s Montreal riding of Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie.
Enns said he does not expect the byelections to modify seat counts, with an exception made for the Rosemont riding which could go to the Liberals if their numbers continue to be as strong in Quebec in the months to come.
“I think that’s the one that has maybe the greatest potential to be interesting.”
But those byelections will probably not be called until after the Quebec election and possibly the Alberta referendum in October, so they could only take place in November or December.
National Post
calevesque@postmedia.com
Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our newsletters here.
