Trade Deadline Outlook: Minnesota Twins

The Twins have had a better season than most — myself certainly included — anticipated. Taj Bradley is having a breakout year. Joe Ryan has been characteristically excellent. Ryan Jeffers (when healthy) has taken his game to a new level. Young players like Brooks Lee and Luke Keaschall have had solid showings. Trevor Larnach is enjoying his best year. Byron Buxton might hit 40 home runs.

But for all those positive developments, Minnesota still finds itself a few games shy of .500 and on the outside looking in when it comes to the American League playoff picture. The Twins traded five relievers from what was one of MLB’s best bullpens last summer and, even after eschewing further offseason selling, did nothing of note to address the group. The primary additions were Taylor Rogers, Eric Orze and Anthony Banda. Unsurprisingly, the Twins’ bullpen has been among the worst in the sport — arguably the very worst.

With a competent bullpen, the Twins might have spent the season as a Cinderella contender. They’ve been hovering a few games under .500 for a few months, and it’s not a stretch to think they could’ve been on the right side of .500 for much of that time.

The Twins find themselves in an odd spot. Ownership has slashed payroll by about $50MM since their last playoff appearance in 2023. Their control over several of their best players is dwindling. They sold last summer, payroll is way down. They’re under .500. On paper, all that seems like a team gearing up to act as a seller. However, new control person Tom Pohlad — who usurped younger brother Joe’s spot on the ownership hierarchy in last December’s shuffle — has stated dating back to the offseason that he wants to compete and win back the trust of fans. Less than two weeks ago, he told the Twins beat:

“We’ve got to put a better product on the field. There does need to be an upfront investment made. But when we make an investment, we have to be successful. We have to *****ing win. If we do that, then people will come and it will all work.”

That certainly doesn’t sound like an owner who’s content to see his club sell off more veteran pieces, though Pohlad notably did not commit firmly to a direction one way or another. That’s understandable, given Minnesota’s place in the standings. If they’re within arm’s reach of a Wild Card spot, it seems unlikely they’ll engineer a massive sell-off. If anything, it seems like the Twins are poised to both trade some short-term pieces and perhaps use an already deep farm to bring in some new faces who are controlled beyond the current season.

Record: 49-52 (23.1% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)

For other entries in this series, check out this post.

Sell Mode

Rental pieces: Ryan Jeffers, Josh Bell, Taylor Rogers

The Twins’ decision on Jeffers is perhaps the most interesting they face. He’s been a monster this season, raking at a .288/.401/.540 pace with a massive 15.6% walk rate that matches his relatively tiny 15.6% strikeout rate. A hamate fracture cost him two months of the year, but Jeffers has picked up right where he left off with a homer, two doubles, three walks and three strikeouts in 20 plate appearances since returning just prior to the All-Star break.

Jeffers has quietly been one of the game’s best-hitting catchers for several seasons, but this output would be a clear new level for the 29-year-old free-agent-to-be. He’s a former second-round pick and top-100 prospect whose bat is better than his glove, but Jeffers has posted serviceable defensive grades in a small sample this year. He has enough bat that an acquiring team could plug him in at DH more than catcher and feel comfortable with it. The Twins signed Victor Caratini to a two-year deal over the winter, and he slashed .288/.364/.505 from May 20 through July 9 while Jeffers was out.

Caratini gives the Twins an established replacement if they choose to move Jeffers. Trading Jeffers would weaken their current roster but the Twins could potentially bring back a big league reliever controlled beyond the current season as part of the return, which might help to mitigate some of the lost value.

At the same time, Jeffers has hit well enough thus far to make him a borderline qualifying offer candidate. They’re a better team with Jeffers catching and hitting in the middle of the lineup than without. There’s a case to keep him, particularly if the Twins can stack a few wins and enhance their playoff odds. At the same time, if Jeffers can’t sustain his newfound production, the Twins would run the risk of getting to the end of the season, not wanting to make a QO, and then letting a talented player depart for no compensation. It’s a tough decision.