After consecutive fourth place finishes in the AL East, the Rays are back to their old ways. They’ve exceeded outside expectations and not only find themselves atop the division, they’re approaching July with the best record in the American League.
The Rays are coming off a sweep of the Diamondbacks and have the sport’s longest active winning streak at five games. That paired with the Yankees getting swept over four games in Boston over the weekend has pushed Tampa Bay back atop the division by a game and a half. It’d take a massive collapse for them not to make the playoffs, but there’s a significant advantage to winning the division. The AL East champion will almost certainly have one of the two best records in the league and get the accompanying first-round bye.
Tampa Bay rarely operates within a strict buyer/seller framework. Similarly to the Brewers and Guardians, they’re in a constant state of roster churn to avoid an extended rebuild despite their payroll limitations. They traded away Brandon Lowe, arguably the best offensive second baseman in the game, just a few months ago. The long-term payroll outlook is clean and they again have one of the league’s deepest farm systems. That should position them to add MLB talent and try to take advantage of what’s shaping up to be a weak playoff field in the American League.
Record: 48-33 (93.8% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)
Buy Mode
Potential needs: High-leverage relief, outfield, second base, back-end starter, catcher
The Rays have an atypical number of weaknesses for a team sitting atop the league standings. The lineup has been carried by three excellent hitters in Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda. The back half of the lineup has not been nearly as productive despite their general ability to put balls in play.
Bullpen
That leaves some obvious areas for upgrade in the lineup, but the pitching staff is probably the bigger concern. Tampa Bay has leaned heavily on a bullpen that has felt the absence of high-leverage arms Manuel Rodríguez and Edwin Uceta. Both righties have been out all season — Rodríguez recovering from last summer’s elbow surgery, Uceta due to a couple shoulder injuries. They might be back later in the season but seem unlikely to be ready before the August 3 trade deadline.
The Rays have gotten excellent work from closer Bryan Baker. Grounder specialist Kevin Kelly has pitched his way into leverage spots with a career year. Garrett Cleavinger is one of the more talented left-handed relievers in the sport, but he’s walking more batters and getting far less swing and miss than he did a year ago. Cam Booser has pitched well in a tiny sample as their second lefty after a dominant couple months in Triple-A. How confident are the Rays that this is a new level for a 34-year-old whom they added on a minor league deal?
There are the makings of a very good bullpen in here already — if Cleavinger gets on track, Booser keeps pitching well, and Uceta/Rodríguez come back at their usual levels. That’s a lot of hypotheticals. They’re currently carrying each of Craig Kimbrel, Cole Sulser and Casey Legumina in the middle innings. Tampa relievers are 22nd in ERA and have allowed the second-highest home run rate.
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