Elections in Indiana, Ohio and Michigan on Tuesday reinforced a picture that’s becoming increasingly clear – while President Donald Trump still dominates the Republican Party, Democrats seem to have the momentum ahead of November’s midterm elections.
The biggest test of Trump’s power came in Indiana, where he backed primary challenges against seven Republican state senators who rejected his redistricting plan in December. Five of the president’s candidates won with the help of an avalanche of cash.
Meanwhile in Michigan, a Democrat comfortably won a state Senate race in a bellwether district, the latest in a string of special election victories.
Over in Ohio, primaries locked in candidates for two major races with national implications.
Here are some takeaways from Tuesday night.
Trump’s influence on the Republican Party remains strong
Trump took aim at seven Republican state senators in Indiana who opposed his plan to redraw congressional district boundaries to help the party gain seats in the U.S. House. His intervention mostly paid off.
Groups allied with the president spent more than $8.3 million on advertising, an extraordinary surge of money into races that are typically low-profile.
Five Trump-backed challengers won. One incumbent won. A seventh contest was too close to call on Tuesday night.
The races were a test of Trump’s enduring grip over his party as Republicans grow increasingly anxious about the midterm elections.
By winning most of them, Trump sent a signal to Republicans everywhere that they can still get thrown out of office if they distance themselves from him even as his popularity fades. And they show the president that he can still credibly threaten consequences for Republicans who cross him.
The Trump-targeted state senators all represent districts he carried in 2024, mostly by 20 percentage points or more.
“Historic night for Indiana as Republicans stood with me and President Trump to nominate some great America First conservatives,” Republican Gov. Mike Braun, who backed Trump’s challengers, wrote on social media.
Ohio races now get started in earnest
The state’s primary was the wind-up to the big show. Although Ohio has become increasingly conservative, Democrats believe their path back to a U.S. Senate majority runs through the state.
They’re putting their hopes behind former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost Ohio’s other Senate seat to Bernie Moreno in 2024. Brown easily won the Democratic nomination Tuesday and will face off with Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed last year to fill the vacancy created when JD Vance became vice president.
The race is a special election to fill the last two years of Vance’s term.
Brown has consistently done better in Ohio than Democratic presidential candidates as the state has shifted to the right. Even in 2024, when Democrat Kamala Harris lost Ohio to Trump by 11 points, Brown lost by less than 4 points.
In the campaign for governor, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy has parlayed his national name recognition, tech industry connections and alliance with Trump into a record fundraising haul. He largely ignored Republican rival Casey Putsch, focusing his rallies and television ads on the general election, and won the primary decisively.
An engineer and vehicle designer who calls himself “The Car Guy,” Putsch attracted fans with provocative YouTube videos that trolled Ramaswamy and criticized national Republicans over their handling of the Epstein files, positions on energy-guzzling data centers and support for Israel.
Ramaswamy will face Amy Acton, Ohio’s former public health director, who ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination. She played a key role in the state’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Another special election, another big swing toward Democrats
Special elections have swung almost universally toward Democrats since Trump returned to the White House, and the trend continued Tuesday in central Michigan.
Democrat Chedrick Greene won a state Senate seat in a closely matched district where Harris bested Trump by less than 1 point in 2024.
It’s just one special election months out from the midterms, but in a preeminent battleground like Michigan, all political tea leaves are carefully analyzed. The state has one of the top U.S. Senate contests this November and is crucial in deciding presidential elections.
The race carries outsized importance for another reason, too. Greene’s victory gives Democrats a firm majority in the state Senate, while a Republican win would have deadlocked the chamber in a 19-19 tie.
The seat has been vacant for more than a year, since Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet resigned to take a seat in Congress.
Democrats are showing surprising strength in special elections and off-year contests across the country, winning races in unexpected places and significantly narrowing the gap, even when they fall short.
There’s no guarantee the trend will continue through the midterms, when turnout will be much higher, but it has nonetheless energized Democrats and spooked Republicans worried about keeping their congressional majorities.
