Many feel the way that you have to bet on UFC is parlaying heavy favorites together, but underdogs win approximately 35% of the time in the world’s largest MMA promotion. Don’t be afraid to hunt for plus money.
Years ago, I developed a predictive model that uses in-fight stats and fighter attributes to simulate UFC fight outcomes — so long as the combatants had at least 30 completed octagon minutes or 5 total fights. I found that, in the UFC, moneyline favorites are usually overvalued.
How is that possible? Well, in a fight environment with as many variables per second as MMA, it’s hard to see the difference between -150 and -350 in real time. Great bets can lose. Terrible bets can win by lucky measures.
Every week, I’m going to give you my favorite underdog bet of the week. They’ll usually be showing value in my model, and I’ll explain their path to victory.
Here’s my favorite bit of plus money available for UFC Fight Night: Numagomedov vs. Song. *Note: All fight odds come via Polymarket, the official prediction market of UFC. *
Swaim’s Underdog of the Week: Denise Gomes (+144)
**Model Odds: -133 **
**Model’s Favorite Exact Outcome and Implied Odds: Decision (+227) **
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In Saturday’s co-main event, Brazilian strawweight Denise Gomes is seeking her fifth straight win. She’s an underdog to get it.
I understand where oddsmakers are coming from. Yan Xiaonan is a former title challenger in this 115-pound division, impressively going all 25 minutes with Weili Zhang. She wasn’t submitted in a dangerous 15 minutes against Virna Jandiroba in her only appearance during 2025. Xiaonan has become a brutal out — especially in China. She’s 3-0 in her home country.
But, Xiaonan is now 37, and the lack of activity won’t help her stay sharp. Her recent wins haven’t aged particularly well, as Tabatha Ricci has dropped three of her last four, and Jessica Andrade’s late-career slide has been six losses in her last eight fights.
Above all, the Chinese striker just isn’t particularly dangerous. A “survival-first” mindset on the ground is paired with a 0.22% knockdown rate. She’s dropped just 1 of her 13 UFC opponents.
Gomes is the opposite. She’s scored a knockdown in three of her last six fights with a 0.65% knockdown rate. The Brazilian attempts 0.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes but has yet to find the tapout on a UFC opponent, signaling potential regression.
I’m not entirely sure that finish comes against Xiaonan, but there’s no doubt this is a competitive distance fight, and the 26-year-old also attempts 4.26 takedowns per 15 minutes. She’s the one of these two willing to mix it up.
That’s a big deal when the aforementioned Jandiroba just landed 3 of 11 takedown attempts and posted 9:59 in control. There’s no doubt that she is a better grappler than Gomes, but the threat of Yan getting stuck on her back could make a difference in decision-making between these well-matched strikers.
My model has this fight at 64.9% likely to go the distance, which mirrors strawweight’s rolling yearly average of 68.6% of fights going the full distance. Xiaonan hasn’t been finished inside the distance since May 2021.
So, even if this isn’t Gomes’ most impressive performance, she probably shouldn’t be just 41.0% implied to win the fight. An 11-year age gap, grappling upside, and a power advantage are all working in her favor. The model’s forecast of Gomes’ decision outcome (30.6%) also shows value in betting markets.
