UFC Vegas 119 Predictions: Best Bets for Kape vs. Horiguchi Fight Night

Just six days after one of the most memorable nights in UFC history, the action in the Octagon won’t be slowing down, as the Meta Apex in Las Vegas delivers UFC Vegas 119.

The main event of this Fight Night card will be a pivotal flyweight contenders’ matchup, as Manel Kape takes on Kyoji Horiguchi. This will be a rematch of the pair’s first meeting in RIZIN in December 2017. There, Horiguchi submitted Kape before knocking out Shintaro Ishiwatari that same night to claim the 2017 RIZIN Bantamweight Grand Prix title.

Kape has won three straight and comes in with a 7-3 Octagon record since making the jump from RIZIN. Kape comes into this bout off his best UFC performance yet, knocking out Brandon Royval this past December. Horiguchi, the former RIZIN and Bellator champion, is 2-0 since returning to the UFC, submitting Tagir Ulanbekov in November and scoring a decision over Amir Albazi in February.

The co-main event will be a light heavyweight battle between Ion Cutelaba and Navajo Stirling. Cutelaba fought in March, earning a first-round submission of Oumar Sy. Stirling, meanwhile, is 9-0 in his career, having won four UFC bouts since earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. Stirling fought at UFC Seattle in March, finishing Bruno Lopes.

The rest of the main card will feature Hyder Amil vs. Christian Rodriguez, Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov, and Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira.

ION CUTELABA VS NAVAJO STIRLING

This will be Stirling’s toughest test yet in the Octagon, given Cutelaba’s experience. That said, Stirling has some size advantage over Cutelaba, and he’s coming in riding the momentum of his current unbeaten run. This is not just going to be a gatekeeper vs. rising prospect matchup, but we’re going to see Cutelaba’s power-filled and Sambo-based fighting style against the Muay Thai and kickboxing of Stirling.

Cutelaba could very well try to push the pace early and try to end things quickly with his “Hulk smash” style; however, that could be a crucial mistake, leaving himself open to attack from Stirling’s kickboxing. Stirling may have some grappling and jiu-jitsu experience, but it’s nothing compared to Cutelaba’s grappling game. If Cutelaba can hold out against Stirling’s forward pressure and get this to the ground, he’ll have the edge. But that’s tough to imagine for him to do for most of the 15 minutes.

BET: Stirling -3.5 (DraftKings: -190)

ANDRE LIMA VS KEVIN BORJAS

Andre Lima is a strong kickboxer who makes use of his distance. He’ll land kicks from range, focused on punishing leg kicks early and displaying a sound counterattack before working combinations. Kevin Borjas has plenty of power in his strikes, but his DWCS win and lone Octagon win have come via decision (unlike his previous victories), and he’s just 1-4 in the Octagon since earning his contract. He could very well be fighting for his UFC future here, and Lima’s a tough outing.

Though Lima has had weight issues, Borjas is the one who missed weight, furthering the hole for himself. Borjas will have to decide whether to try to handle an early storm or to try to get Lima out of there quickly; either way, he’s in some trouble here.

BET: Lima via TKO OR Points (FanDuel: -240)

BIA MESQUITA VS MELISSA MULLINS

Not to take anything away from the toughness and savageness of Melissa Mullins, but this line being so close is surprising. Bia Mesquita is a GOAT in jiu-jitsu, and there’s been plenty of hype around her since she transitioned to MMA and made her UFC debut this past October. She has scored finishes in almost all of her fights, with five submissions, a TKO, and a DQ win in her name to make up her current 7-0 record.

Mullins is an all-rounder, so she will need to use her takedown defense, and that better be at an A+ game. She’ll need to make Mesquita work in the clinch – and better yet, combine it with range-based offense to test Mesquita’s cardio. One takedown and submission attempt will be all that it takes for Mesquita to quickly end things, so Mullins had better watch out.

BET: Mesquita via submission (FanDuel: -105)