Undergraduate enrollment likely peaked this spring, higher education insiders say, as colleges prepare for a long-term slide in applications driven by declining birth rates.
The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center counted 15.5 million undergraduate students during the recent spring semester. That’s up 1.3% from a year earlier.
A 10.2% surge of 86,000 more students enrolled in short-term certificates led the increase in undergrad headcount. That was followed by a 1.3% jump of 59,000 more students enrolled in two-year associate degrees and a 1% increase of 85,000 more students in four-year bachelor’s degree programs.
At the same time, the Virginia-based nonprofit found that graduate enrollment dipped by 4,000 students to 3.1 million.
Declines also occurred in international graduate and computer sciences programs, reflecting the Trump administration’s immigration restrictions and hesitation about artificial intelligence reshaping technology jobs.
“The momentum we continue to see in undergraduate enrollment — particularly in certificate programs — does not extend to graduate programs,” said Matthew Holsapple, the clearinghouse’s senior research director.
The clearinghouse noted that programs tied to strong markets for healthcare and engineering jobs led undergraduate enrollment growth.
Higher education leaders braced for a “demographic cliff” this spring, as a years-long decline in U.S. births since 2008 drove a 15% drop in potential college applicants.
The nonprofit Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education projects that U.S. high school graduation numbers will fall steadily from a record 3.9 million students in 2025 to under 3.4 million in 2041.
That’s an abrupt turnaround from decades of growth that fueled college expansions.
Several academic insiders said Monday that the clearinghouse report confirms traditional college enrollment has likely reached its historic peak. They noted that a changing job market has redirected applicants from costly four-year degrees to cheaper skilled-trade credentials, further weakening the financial base of residential campuses.
“We’re going to see a scaling-back of higher education programs,” said Peter Wood, president of the conservative National Association of Scholars and a former associate provost at private Boston University. “Short-term credentials create the illusion that higher education will get past the cliff, but it’s unwise to think they represent any saving grace for the academy.”
Some experts predicted that more 18-year-old high school graduates unable to afford rising tuition costs will apply only to top-tier colleges and wait to start short-term trade programs if they do not get into them.
John Morganelli, a former Cornell University admissions director, said second-tier public colleges and private liberal arts schools will suffer the most from the trend.
“The tuition-dependent middle gets hollowed out,” said Mr. Morganelli, head of college admissions at Ivy Tutors Network. “The cliff is real.’
Wayne Kruger, associate vice president of financial assistance services at St. Petersburg College, a community and state college in Florida, countered that colleges embracing vocational programs will still see enrollment increases “for the near future.”
“This is mostly based on economic factors,” Mr. Kruger said. “As AI replaces white-collar jobs and the economy continues to struggle, students will look to community colleges [and] state colleges for retraining and career advancement like they did in the dot-com bubble, the housing crisis, and other economic downturns.”
Nearly a third of annual job openings through 2031 will require credentials but no degree, according to Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce.
Nikolas Grotewold, an adviser at the college admissions tutoring firm Inspira Advantage, said the spring enrollment numbers show that students are shunning traditional academic programs as birth rates fall.
“It won’t be a universal collapse,” Mr. Grotewold said. “More than likely, it will be a redistribution toward community colleges, adult learners and short-term credentials.”
But others noted that confidence in the value of a degree has declined, adding to downward pressures on enrollment.
Gallup and the nonprofit Lumina Foundation found in a survey released this year that the share of adults expressing “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in universities dropped from 57% in 2015 to 42% in 2025.
“The public’s trust and confidence in higher education have eroded across demographics,” said Brian Keeter, a senior higher education adviser at D.C. consulting firm APCO. “The three most cited [factors] are escalating costs, unclear admissions practices, and a bucket of political issues, such as concerns about free speech and what is taught in classrooms.”
Kevin Krebs, CEO of the Illinois-based admissions counseling firm Hello College, said campuses that “adapt to what students are actually looking for” have a better chance of surviving the cliff.
“They’re no longer blindly selecting a school because it’s close, their friends are going or they aren’t sure what to do next,” Mr. Krebs said. “They’re looking more closely at cost, outcomes, and fit, and choosing the path that makes the most sense for them.”
