Just two years ago, the Chicago White Sox lost 121 games, setting the record for the most in major league history. They lost another 102 games in 2025, the second-worst total in the league, and 27 games behind the postseason field.
This season, they entered the month of June just one game back of first place in the AL Central, and with the fourth-best record in the American League. About 60 games into the 2026 season, the White Sox are playoff contenders and the biggest collective surprise in the league. Can they sustain their shocking turnaround? Their attitude seems to be they “can win every night.”
The next month will tell us a lot, especially because they’re missing their best hitter — who also happens to be one of the biggest individual surprises in Major League Baseball.
Before sustaining a right hamstring strain over the weekend, 26-year-old Japanese import Munetaka Murakami had become Chicago’s own version of Kyle Schwarber, putting up a slash line of .240/.378/.560 with 20 home runs. He was one of the 5-10 best hitters in MLB.
While his offensive results in Nippon Professional Baseball and international success showed such prodigious results were possible, Murakami’s performance here still seemed unlikely to MLB teams. Nobody offered the big bucks projected in free agency this past offseason, and Murakami signed a two-year, $34 million “prove it” deal to play in Chicago.
Murakami’s underlying metrics indicate he’ll continue to prove it once he returns to the lineup. His average exit velocity and barrels show someone hitting the ball at an elite level. He doesn’t chase pitches out of the strike zone, and concerns about his ability to handle the higher velocity of MLB pitchers were overblown.
He’s not a one-man lineup, either. Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery are among the better hitters in the league, and have helped the White Sox score the ninth-most runs in MLB. Only the New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves have hit more runs, and the White Sox are middle of the pack in walks and stolen bases.
On the pitching side, right-hander Davis Martin has emerged as one of the most effective starters in the league — atop the second tier after Cristopher Sánchez, Jacob Misiorowski and Cam Schlittler. The collective results have been middle of the pack, and there should be concerns about the bullpen being overworked. They have a 10-14 record against winning teams.
But their expected winning percentage (based on runs scored vs. allowed) aligns with reality. They have a deep minor league system and collateral to trade for help down the stretch. The White Sox might not be World Series contenders yet, but everything short of that is on the table. And look at how fast they went from the worst team ever to where they are now. It’s only June.
Even the best player in the league is one of the biggest surprises because of how well he is pitching. Dodgers great Shohei Ohtani, who has yet to win a Cy Young Award, is doing everything he can to rectify that. He has allowed five earned runs total (seven overall) in nine starts over 55 innings for an 0.82 ERA.
The lowest ERA in the live-ball era (since 1920) is Bob Gibson’s 1.12 in 1968. Ohtani’s expected 2.38 ERA is behind Misiorowski and Paul Skenes, so the math tells us to expect regression. But if there’s anyone capable of outperforming the expectations, it’s Ohtani.
It wasn’t long ago that Los Angeles Angels slugger Mike Trout was considered the best player in the league. While it would be misleading to call Trout ineffective in recent seasons, injuries took a toll. Already one of the top players of his generation, Trout is playing again with something to prove.
Approaching age 35, he has 14 home runs, an OPS near .900, and is among the league leaders in walks and runs scored. Even more encouraging: Trout has been unlucky at the plate, posting multiple 98th-99th percentiles across the board, including expected slugging, barrel percentage, and chase percentage. He’s hitting the ball hard and he’s running well, posting an 88th percentile in sprint speed. Staying healthy, of course, is the biggest key. But he’s already been healthier than usual for his 30s.
A few preseason pundits predicted the Pittsburgh Pirates would emerge as fringe contenders this season, but how well they’ve performed must be a surprise to most.
They’re fifth in the league in run differential, giving themselves a strong chance to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2018. Ace right-hander Paul Skenes has shown his humanity this season, meaning he has been more vulnerable than in his first two years. The arrival of slugger Konnor Griffin is going well, but his results have only been great for a few weeks, and now he’s on the injured list because of a forearm strain.
But that’s OK. It means the Bucs are greater than the contributions of their most talented players. Spencer Horwitz, Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz have all been resurgent at the plate. Thanks to Braxton Ashcroft and Mitch Keller, the starting pitching has been excellent across the board, with only Bubba Chandler’s inconsistency holding him back. Top prospect Seth Hernandez is waiting in the wings. The left-handed back of the bullpen has been effective but the rest of it needs tweaking. Good news: It’s the easiest part of a roster to tweak.
The entire NL Central is over .500, and only the Cincinnati Reds don’t have an expected mark than break-even (26-33). No division has even has every team finish better than .500 over an entire season, but MLB’s bloated interleague schedule gives us a chance to see it in 2026.
It’s going to be a struggle for the Reds to keep up with the rest of the division, so they’ll need Elly De La Cruz to get healthy, and they’ll need to overcome injuries to several key relief pitchers. But don’t be surprised if manager Terry Francona can squeeze the best out of the active roster and the Reds help the NL Central make weird history.
