Photo: Tanner Piper/Piper Sports Photography/3DownNation. All rights reserved.
The Canadian Football League heads into Week 13, and the coolness of autumn is starting to creep in, which means these games are getting more important as we approach Labour Day.
I went 2-1 last week, and I have another three plays to break down this week, so let’s get into it.
Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers — Friday, August 28 at 8:30 p.m. EDT
We say farewell to Thursday nights for another year in the CFL with Montreal and Winnipeg getting the week started on Friday in the Manitoba capital.
Winnipeg continued their trend of struggling against the better teams in the league with their loss to Edmonton last week. The Bombers have only beaten one team that currently sits in a playoff spot. That was a 31-20 win over the Argos in Week 6. Other than that, they have two wins over Ottawa, a win over Hamilton in the game that likely saw Bo Levi Mitchell’s season come to an end, and a Week 1 win over Calgary, who was still integrating some recently returning players into their lineup.
So, a matchup with a team that is at the top of most CFL Power Rankings is less than ideal for this Winnipeg side. And they are catching the Alouettes at the wrong time. If there was a CFL video game, the Alouettes would be playing it on easy mode right now. They are absolutely dominating teams. Their point differential (+104) is nearly twice as good as the next closest team’s (+53).
I don’t see any reason to believe that the Alouettes’ dominance should slow down this week; I like them big on the road against the Bombers.
Pick: Montreal -6.5
Toronto Argonauts at Saskatchewan Roughriders — Saturday, August 29 at 7:00 p.m. EDT
The Saskatchewan Roughriders return home trying to snap a two-game slide as they take on the Toronto Argonauts.
The Riders will be very happy to be back on the prairies after back-to-back disappointing losses to Hamilton and B.C. Meanwhile, Toronto rebounded from a blowout loss in Week 11 with a blowout win in Week 12.
In these uncertain times, it is nice to have some things that just stay the same. One thing we can all rely on is that an Argos game will feature a ton of passing yards. Toronto has the most passing yards per game in the league, while they have also given up the third most per game this year.
Last week, they allowed Tre Ford to pick up a career-high 356 passing yards in what was just the fourth 300-yard game of the Canadian pivot’s career. He and Trevor Harris are exactly nothing alike as QBs, but I expect the results to be similar.
Harris went off against the Argos when these two met back in Week 4, throwing for 409 yards and 2 TDs. Since that game, the Argos have allowed four more QBs to reach the 300-yard mark, with Vernon Adams Jr. also getting to 400 yards.
Now, Saskatchewan did end up losing that game back in Week 4, and the way they are playing now doesn’t give me enough confidence to make a play on them this week. But I’ll gladly take their QB to have another big day against an Argos defence that seems to hand those out pretty easily.
Pick: Trevor Harris Over 325.5 passing yards
B.C. Lions at Ottawa Redblacks — Sunday, August 30 at 7:00 p.m. EDT
The Ottawa Redblacks continue their search for their first win of the year as they take on the B.C. Lions to close out the week.
I’m not breaking any news here when I say that Ottawa has been dreadful this season. The Redblacks dropped their 10th in a row last week while getting demolished by the Alouettes. Earlier, we talked about Montreal’s point differential being so far ahead of everyone. Well, the Redblacks are almost doing the same in the negative category. Their -139 point differential is 77 points worse than the next closest team’s (Hamilton -62).
They are in the bottom third in almost every statistical category you can think of. Each week, the CFL puts out a big stat package showing where every team ranks. This week’s “team rankings” page featured 72 stats. They are in the bottom third in 55 of them. One of the categories they lead in is red zone plays, but they are last in red zone TDs, so I feel like that one shouldn’t count. All of this to say, they aren’t very good at football right now.
The B.C. Lions, on the other hand, are on fire, having won four in a row with victories coming over Winnipeg, Hamilton, Calgary, and most recently Saskatchewan. Nathan Rourke is obviously leading the charge for this group, but the defence has stepped up as well. They have only allowed 25+ points twice in the last 7 games.
There isn’t one area in Ottawa’s game that looks like a strength right now, while the Lions are playing some of their most well-rounded football of the year. So, this feels like a clear choice.
Pick: BC -7.5
