3DownNation CFL best bets: Week 6

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The Canadian Football League rolls into Week 6, and injuries are really starting to play a role in how we look at these games. 

Key players on both sides of the ball are getting banged up across the league, so we will get to see how different teams and players step up, and if there is an edge we can find along the way. So, let’s get into it.

Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers — Friday, July 10 at 8:30 p.m. EDT

The Toronto Argonauts will look to bounce back from their big loss last week as they take on Winnipeg.

The Blue Bombers are one of the teams affected by injury, with Dru Brown listed as the team’s starting QB in the absence of Zach Collaros. While that isn’t exactly ideal, it is still better than the backup plans for other teams across the league. He’ll be facing a defence that is missing linebacker Cameron Judge, who has been flying around the field when healthy this year. 

I believe that opens up a really interesting opportunity for Nic Demski. I can see Winnipeg trying to get Brown going with quick passes to Demski, who could have a little bit more room to run against a Toronto defence that has really struggled at defending the pass and now doesn’t have their tackle-machine LB in the lineup to cut some of those underneath routes short. 

Toronto has allowed a receiver to get to over 100 yards in every game so far this year, and while I’m not suggesting Demski has a 193-yard game like Tyson Philpot did back in Week 2, I do think he can get into the 70s and get us a win.

On the Toronto side, Chad Kelly obviously gets the buzz as the team’s QB, but this week, I’m going to focus on running back Sam Hicks. The rookie hasn’t had the biggest workload this season, but he is averaging 6.5 yards per carry and has gone over 50 yards in every game but one. He is facing a Winnipeg defence that has allowed the most rushing yards per game in the league this year. 

Pick: Nic Demski Over 65.5 receiving yards, Sam Hicks Over 55.5 rush yards

Calgary Stampeders at Montreal Alouettes — Saturday, July 11 at 7:00 p.m. EDT

The Stampeders look to stay hot as they head into Montreal to take on the Alouettes on Saturday night.

Calgary put on a show last week in beating up the Toronto Argonauts. Meanwhile, Montreal is coming off a bye after their win over Ottawa in Week 4. I do think that winning an underwhelming game against the Redblacks after a loss to Edmonton will give Montreal plenty of motivation. 

You can be motivated all you want; execution is what matters. And Montreal hasn’t really seemed all that impressive to start this year. This is an incredibly talented football team, but it hasn’t felt like it has clicked for them yet. 

Meanwhile, on the other sideline, Calgary has been getting better each week. Their defence is getting healthier, and Vernon Adams Jr. has the offence rolling even with a couple of key weapons missing. 

This one isn’t just about the stats; it’s based more on what we’ve seen from each team recently. I don’t mind taking Calgary straight-up, but for the purposes of making the best bet, I’ll take the team that I think looks better right now, and I’ll gladly take some extra points with them. 

Pick: Calgary +3.5

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Saskatchewan Roughriders — Sunday, July 12 at 7:00 p.m. EDT

A potential game-of-the-year candidate was taken away from us by injury as the banged-up Tiger-Cats head into Regina to take on the Riders. 

Hamilton is set to start what appears to be a long stretch without Bo Levi Mitchell when they take on the defending champs on Sunday night. While I believe the backup options for Hamilton will have a difficult time against the Riders, the spread scares me off a bit because of Saskatchewan’s habit of playing surprisingly close games. 

My focus for this matchup is on the run game. Larry Rountree III will be called upon to help support the offence with Mitchell on the shelf. While Saskatchewan’s run defence isn’t as dominant as it has been in the past, it still looks very good. Rountree’s rushing yards total is set at 77.5 yards. The Riders have only allowed one rusher to get over that number this year, and I can see Corey Mace focusing on shutting down Rountree this week to make the backup QBs for Hamilton beat them. 

Pick: Larry Rountree Under 77.5 Rushing Yards

Peter Klein is a Saskatchewan-born, Calgary-based CFL analyst. He is a lifelong fan who has been covering the league across multiple platforms for the last 17 years.