Adam Chernoff’s CFL picks: bank on points aplenty in Dru Brown’s Winnipeg return

Photo courtesy: Jimmy Jeong/CFL

Went 1-1 last week and back again in Week 6 with one staple over and two sides.

Toronto Argonauts versus Winnipeg Blue Bombers over 59.5

Dru Brown gets the start in place of Zach Collaros. He has taken plenty of criticism over the last two weeks. First for being second-string behind a struggling Jake Maier in Ottawa, then for not getting the nod over Taylor Elgersma last week after his trade to Winnipeg.

Looking at a total of 59.5, the case can be made that Brown is a downgrade and Winnipeg will lean heavily on the run. I don’t buy it. In fact, I think the opposite is true.

Ryan Dinwiddie said they stuck with Maier in Ottawa because they wanted a quarterback who could stretch the field. That doesn’t hold up. Since 2021, only Vernon Adams Jr. and Chad Kelly have a higher rate of deep pass attempts than Brown. If anything, Brown should open up this struggling Bombers offence.

With Collaros, Winnipeg ranked dead last in deep pass attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. Expect a much more aggressive approach through the air.

If you’ve been reading my columns this season, you already know you don’t have to twist my arm to bet an Argonauts over. This Toronto team, with Mike Miller and Kelly, is the CFL version of the 2019 Tampa Bay Buccaneers under Bruce Arians and Jameis Winston. Risk it for the biscuit.

The Bombers defence benefited from facing a backup quarterback last week and the league’s most under-friendly offence the week before. That’s a much different challenge than facing the Argonauts, who lead the CFL in yards per play.

Points aplenty.

Montreal Alouettes -3.5

The Stampeders are not as good as their last two weeks suggest.

In Weeks 4 and 5, they faced two teams without permanent home stadiums, both with non-competitive defences. Their 41 and 58-point outbursts were more a product of those matchups than Calgary’s true offensive ceiling.

They’ve also benefited from a very friendly schedule. Through five weeks, Calgary has yet to travel farther than a four-hour drive from home. They have played three home games, one neutral site game in Kelowna, and had a bye week. That changes now.

The Stampeders travel across the country for their first true road game of 2026 to face a legitimate football team in Montreal.

The Alouettes are coming off a bye, and they’ve been outstanding in that spot under Jason Maas, going 7-2 in post-bye games. I expect the biggest improvement to come on the defensive side, where the first few weeks were spent integrating new players into the system while Noel Thorpe employed an unusually passive approach.

Montreal’s defence has been a pass funnel this season, which on paper looks like a great matchup for Vernon Adams Jr. and the Stampeders offence. I don’t think it lasts another week.

Adams Jr. has been exceptional, but for a quarterback whose career has often been defined by volatility, this stretch of flawless football is the best we’ve seen from him. He has 11 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 136.0 efficiency rating.

I’m betting this is the week that regresses and Calgary’s offence comes back to earth away from home.

Saskatchewan Roughriders -7.5

The Tiger Cats’ season is effectively over.

Before his injury, Bo Levi Mitchell was holding the entire team together with outstanding quarterback play and an incredibly efficient deep ball. He was averaging 10.2 yards per attempt while leading the league with four passing touchdowns of 20-plus yards.

Jake Dolegala is not a starting-calibre professional quarterback. Not only does he lack anything close to Mitchell’s ability to push the ball downfield, but he also isn’t reliable enough over four quarters to avoid costly mistakes.

He’s about as significant a downgrade as you’ll find in this league. His presence completely caps Hamilton’s offence and forces a major change to the playbook.

I’ll gladly fade Hamilton here at anything under 10.

Season record: 9-2 (+7.05x).

Adam Chernoff has been betting on sports and bookmaking for the past 17 years. While he is known across the industry for NFL expertise, he bets on CFL from his home in Saskatoon during the summer.