7 games to go and half of La Liga at risk — Who is going down?

Following a brief pause for the Copa del Rey final, the matches come thick and fast in LaLiga over the month. Every team will play seven times between now and the penultimate weekend of May, and there’s every reason to expect the relegation battle to go right to the wire.

Matchday 30 was the best of the entire season for the Spanish top flight’s strugglers. Five of the bottom six clubs won, with even the seemingly doomed duo of Real Oviedo and Levante showing signs of life. Alaves were the only side to drop points, but still picked up an excellent 3-3 draw away to Real Sociedad.

If the teams at the bottom continue to pick up points at their current rate, 18th-placed Elche would finish on at least 39. However, relegation-threatened clubs typically outperform their season averages in the final weeks, as they take on some opponents no longer competing for anything.

That suggests even the likes of mid-table Espanyol, Girona and Athletic Club (all on 38 points) may still need another victory before they can truly start planning for another year at this level.

The state of play after 31 matches

The likelihood is that for the second season running, 40 points may not be enough for survival. Leganes were relegated with that figure last term.

That offers an indication as to how difficult it is still going to be for Levante and Oviedo to stay up from their current positions. They remain the overwhelming favourites for relegation, with a 75% chance that both are playing Segunda Division football next term.

The third team is expected to come from a group of six clubs currently ranked between 13th and 18th. Of those, Elche and Alaves are the two viewed as most likely to drop, with their meeting on matchday 35 potentially of great significance.

However, the likes of Sevilla, Mallorca and Valencia are by no means out of the woods. A poor end to the season for any of those sides could have disastrous consequences.

Too little, too late for Levante and Oviedo?

A month or so back, there was little prospect of either Levante or Real Oviedo even competing to stay in the top flight. However, both sides have hit form, each losing just one of their last five league games. Oviedo have doubled their win tally for the season in the space of just four matches.

In both cases, it feels like they’ve stumbled on the right solution in the dugout, although those changes may have come too late to save either from relegation.

Luis Castro is averaging an impressive 1.27 points per game as Levante boss. Over the course of a full season, that would equate to 48 points, but the Valencian club’s poor start means they’d only reach 38 should they continue at that rate.

Oviedo have also been much more convincing under Guillermo Almada than was the case under his predecessors Veljko Paunovic and Luis Carrion. Their third coach of the season has picked up more than a point per game over the course of his 15-game reign. Despite that, the Asturians may still need to win four of their final seven fixtures to have a fighting chance.

One glimmer of hope for the bottom two lies in the form of their respective strikers. Fede Viñas is starting to look very much at home in the Spanish top flight, with four goals in his last three games for Oviedo. Meanwhile, Carlos Espi has almost single-handedly brought a ray of light to Levante, with seven goals in his previous six appearances.

In the thick of it – Six clubs separated by three points

If Levante and Oviedo ultimately fail to stage dramatic late escapes, we could end up with a close battle between as many as six teams to avoid the final relegation place.

Of those, Rayo Vallecano are the most likely to pull clear of trouble. They do have the added distraction of an upcoming Conference League semi-final, but Iñigo Perez’s team have got a home game against a badly out-of-form Espanyol side this Thursday. Win that, and they’d be closing in on safety.

Valencia are also on 35 points, but back-to-back defeats against Celta Vigo and Elche have seen them slip towards trouble again. One of four remaining home games is against an Atletico Madrid side that will rotate heavily, with the fixture falling between the two legs of their Champions League semi-final.

Los Che have got fellow strugglers Mallorca and Girona to play before that, but their run-in is tough, with trips to Athletic Club and Real Sociedad, and a home clash with Barcelona among their final four fixtures.

Mallorca and Sevilla are in a similar position to Valencia. Of the two, the momentum is with the Balearic Islanders, who have won three of their last four games.

Martin Demichelis has been the breath of fresh air they clearly needed, with the Argentine utilising a more expansive style that has delivered results. Being able to depend on the firepower of 21-goal Vedat Muriqi could also make all the difference.

Sevilla scraped a 2-1 win over Atleti last time out, for their first points under new boss Luis Garcia Plaza. In theory, he’s the safe pair of hands that should guide the Andalusians over the line, but this is a pretty uninspiring squad that he has at his disposal.

With Real Sociedad and Real Madrid among their three final visitors to the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan, Los Nervionenses may need to find a win on the road. Thursday’s trip to Levante will likely be their best opportunity.

Alaves are in a slightly different boat to many of their fellow strugglers in that their recent coaching change came about due to Chacho Coudet’s desire to take charge of River Plate. His replacement, Quique Sanchez Flores, arrived with bags of experience in the Spanish top flight.

So far under Sanchez Flores, Alaves have been a more entertaining side with 12 goals scored and 12 goals conceded in his five matches. They travel to the Bernabeu next, but benefit from a favourable schedule after that. Four of their final six fixtures are at home, while Los Babazorros’ last two away games are against Elche and Oviedo.

With only two victories in 2026, and no road wins all season, Elche justify their status as the team given the highest chance of completing the bottom three, along with their fellow promoted clubs.

They have just three remaining home fixtures, so Eder Sarabia’s men will surely need to finally win at least once on their travels if they want to stay afloat. Their best chance will come at Oviedo this weekend, or potentially on the final day of the season if Girona have nothing to play for.

Work to do – The mid-table sides looking over their shoulder

While we are now very much into the business end of the season, there are still several teams who could yet be relegated or qualify for Europe. It has been that kind of campaign in the Spanish top flight, with little to choose between the clubs outside of the top four.

Espanyol were firmly on course for European qualification at the midway point. They closed out 2025 with five straight league victories. However, Manolo’s team remain winless in 14 outings so far in 2026. An average of just 0.36 points per game this calendar year suggests they’re the most vulnerable of the mid-table clubs.

Athletic Club and Osasuna meet this evening in a clash which highlights just how tight the middle and bottom half of this league is. Should either team win, they’d move firmly into European contention. However, the loser of that game would be looking somewhat nervously at the relegation scrap beneath them.

Girona are also in action tonight against Real Betis. Having taken four points from their last two matches, against Villarreal and Real Madrid, their trajectory is more clearly an upward one. The Catalans will certainly be eyeing a late European push, having started the season with just one point from their opening five games.