In the world of basketball, the saying goes, “a series doesn’t start until someone loses at home”. Well, we’re heading into game seven in Cleveland, and neither the Raptors or Cavaliers have been able to steal one on the road. If the Raptors want to pull off the big-time upset, they’re going to have to end that streak and find a way to pull one out in Rocket Arena.
The Cavs have been heavy favorites each game in this series, and enter Sunday once again as 8.5-point favorites. Cleveland is 2-1 ATS at home this series, and had to go the final two minutes of game five without scoring to not be 3-0 ATS.
That’s been the biggest negative for Cleveland in this series. They’ve struggled to close out games and threw away two road games against the Raptors, and now are battling to avoid a massive collapse here in this one.
However, despite losing game six in dramatic fashion, I think they figured a few things out. Donovan Mitchell finally came alive in the 4th quarter, scoring 11 points, finally figuring out how to get into the teeth of this large, physical Raptors defense.
A big reason Toronto’s defense has looked so great is the play of Scottie Barnes. He’s been the by far best player in the series, shutting down Mitchell and company on defense, and scoring on whoever’s thrown on him from Cleveland.
Shockingly, James Harden has actually done a solid job walling up against Barnes. He and Dean Wade have been the only two players to give Barnes any fits at all. Speaking of Wade, it was shocking to see him out of the Cleveland starting lineup the last few games. He’s been inconsistent offensively, but has still provided spacing and saved Cleveland defensively.
Wade has a +23 net rating for the Cavs in the postseason, easily the best on the entire team. Max Strus, who replaced him in the starting lineup, has been a -8.3. More specifically, the starting lineup with Strus has been a -19.7, while the one with Wade has been a +30.8. Cleveland ran the lineup with Wade as they made their comeback in game six, so if he’s inserted back in the starting lineup, I think they have a great chance to cover in this one.
Lastly, Toronto’s offense fell incredibly stagnant in game five after Brandon Ingram’s injury. If he’s unable to go in game seven, I can’t see a way they’re able to pull off the upset.
I love Cleveland -8.5 and o211.5 as they will move on to face the winner of Detroit and Orlando.
