US President Donald Trump is withdrawing troops from Germany and has threatened to do the same in Spain. The impact of such an exit would be considerable, especially where the US military is stationed, but is it likely to ever happen?
US President Donald Trump recently said the country’s military would pull thousands of troops from bases in Germany.
Within twenty-four hours, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth signed the order to withdraw 5,000 over the next year.
On April 30th when speaking from the Oval Office, he turned his attention to the Mediterranean and stated that he would “probably” withdraw US troops from Spain and Italy.
Responding to a direct question, his exact words were as follows: “Yes, I probably will. Italy hasn’t helped us at all and Spain has been awful. Absolutely awful. When we needed them, they weren’t there.”
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This follows tensions between Madrid and Washington, with Trump repeatedly critical of Spain’s defence spending and Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s progressive foreign policy positions.
In terms of military bases in Spain specifically, however, there have been no official decisions taken yet. The prospect of troop withdrawals has, nonetheless, worried some in Spain, especially those living in areas of the country with American bases.
In Spain there are only two: the air base at Morón de la Frontera, south of Seville, and the Rota Naval Base, in Cádiz – both in the southern region of Andalusia.
These are military bases which are under Spanish sovereignty but shared with the United States.
What impact will the US military pulling out of Spanish bases have?
Almost 7,000 Americans currently live and work in Rota, including military personnel, family members and civilian staff.
Withdrawing them would, in principle, have a direct economic impact of over €700 million, the amount that the base contributes to the local economy.
It would also put 10,000 direct and indirect jobs at risk, both on and off the base.
The Rota Naval Base base contributes around €600 million annually to Cádiz, according to the US Navy’s annual reports, and supports nearly a thousand civilian jobs under a bilateral agreement.
The aggregate figure, including indirect jobs, is close to 12,000 posts according to municipal estimates.
However, despite the huge possible economic impact an American withdrawal would have, experts think it’s unlikely.
However, the greatest direct impact of US military spending in Spain comes from service and maintenance contracts: in 2022, these amounted to an annual average of €124.5 million over the last 10 years. Today, the figure is many millions higher and the Spanish company Nevantia has maintenance contracts locked in until the end of the year.
The combined economic impact of the Rota and Morón bases accounts for approximately between 0.26 percent and 0.30 percent of the total GDP of Andalusia.
The president of the Cádiz Business Confederation, José Andrés Santos, told El Espaňol that the naval base’s contribution to the province’s economy rests on two pillars.
“The first is the presence of the troops themselves, which generates a great deal of economic activity, and this is growing,” bearing in mind that each of the five US destroyers in Rota represents 400 American jobs.
The second pillar, “which is the one that concerns us”, is the repair of these US Navy vessels. “In Cádiz there are three Navantia shipyards and a fourth, which is within the base itself, and work is carried out on a tender basis,” he added.
Experts, however, suggest that a complete troop withdrawal is very unlikely. Some even say it could be illegal.
The personal unpredictability of Trump, however, combined with a more assertive Washington, means some kind of restructuring could be possible, whether for military or political purposes.
Rafael Calduch Cervera, Professor of Public International Law and International Relations at Complutense University of Madrid, said: “It is one thing to withdraw troops completely, which would breach the bilateral agreement between the United States and Spain and lead to a complaint being lodged in international courts, and quite another to carry out a partial withdrawal of troops, which has been done on other occasions and adds nothing new”.
A complete withdrawal seems unlikely for financial reasons, too.
The US Navy recently invested in Rota, where a sixth destroyer is currently being deployed, and it is the only base in Europe with the capacity to store up to 55 million gallons of fuel.
In October 2025, the US launched a multi-year plan worth $400 million (€343 million) for modernisation works at Morón. It seems unlikely that the US would invest so much money only to abandon new infrastructure.
