Democrats, who once dominated partisan gerrymandering, are losing the redistricting battle to the GOP ahead of November’s midterm elections.
The Virginia Supreme Court’s bombshell decision on Friday nullifying the state’s redrawn congressional lines struck a blow to the Democratic Party’s hopes of picking up an additional four seats in the U.S. House.
The 4-3 ruling in Virginia was handed down as Republicans made gains in nine other states as part of a nationwide partisan redistricting brawl that has given the GOP the advantage.
The latest red-state pickups are in Alabama, South Carolina and Tennessee, where Republican-led legislatures are pushing through last-minute changes to their congressional lines that will likely create additional GOP-leaning districts.
The Florida Legislature last month passed a new congressional map that created four additional GOP-leaning districts, adding to five new Republican-carved districts in Texas and one new GOP-leaning seat each in Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina.
In total, Republicans are poised to add up to 17 additional districts likely to elect GOP candidates to the U.S. House.
By comparison, Democrat-led redistricting has added only six congressional districts — five in California and one in Utah — that favor their party’s candidates.
“Republicans appear to have emerged from the smoke and smolder of the redistricting fight as the clear winners,” analysts for the election forecasting firm Quantus Insights said.
Following the Virginia Supreme Court decision and other redistricting in red states, the race-ratings firm Inside Elections shifted 12 House races, 11 of them in favor of Republicans.
Republicans are in no way guaranteed to keep control of the House in November.
The current congressional district map leaves up to 16 toss-up seats across the nation, in addition to other less-competitive districts, that could swing the majority to either party in the midterm elections.
Republicans now control the House by a mere two seats and are battling growing public disapproval of the GOP’s control of Congress and the White House according to polls.
Some analysts believe the redistricting fight at least gives the GOP a greater chance of holding onto the majority in November despite the daunting poll numbers.
“At minimum, they are now in a statistical toss-up for control of the House,” Quantus Insights analysts said.
The GOP was energized by the ruling.
“This win is yet another sign Republicans have the momentum heading into November. We’re on offense, and we’re going to win,” said Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina, who chairs the GOP’s House fundraising arm.
Democrats are not giving up the redistricting fight. Virginia Democrats on Friday filed a motion in the U.S. Supreme Court, asking it to delay implementation of the Virginia Supreme Court ruling. The two-page motion, filed by Virginia House of Delegates Speaker Don Scott, misspelled “Virginia” and “Senator.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, New York Democrat, said national Democrats are examining ways to block the ruling.
“We are exploring all options to overturn this shocking decision,” Mr. Jeffries said. “No matter what it takes, House Democrats will win in November … our fight is not over. We are just getting started.”
Mr. Jeffries, who would likely become U.S. House speaker if the Democrats win control in November, was the main funder of the massively expensive campaign for the redistricting referendum in Virginia. His House Majority Forward campaign fund dumped $40 million into the race, which helped the new map narrowly pass in an April 22 referendum.
The Virginia Supreme Court voted down the map after hearing from opponents who said the Democrat-led Virginia General Assembly violated the state’s constitution when it convened a special session to redraw the map without an intervening election as required under the state constitution.
Skipping the process, the majority of the court ruled, “irreparably undermines the integrity of the resulting referendum vote and renders it null and void.”
Republican gains in redistricting come after Democrats spent decades redistricting in California, New York, New England and other states.
The aggressive remapping for their party’s advantage has left Democrats with little room for new gerrymandered gains. New England, for example, lacks a single GOP-leaning congressional district.
Still, Democrats complained the GOP’s current redistricting push is unfair because voters did not directly approve it.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who led the 2025 special election that carved out five new Democrat-leaning congressional seats in his state, posted bitterly on social media that the Virginia court ruling tossed out a map approved by voters, while none of the new GOP-favored maps were decided by a similar referendum.
“MAGA has rigged the system,” said Mr. Newsom, who is widely considered to be a likely Democratic presidential candidate in 2028.
