A new survey shows a close race between incumbent Toronto mayor Olivia Chow and her rival, Brad Bradford, ahead of the election on October 26.
Data from Mainstreet Research revealed that, when undecided voters were removed from the equation, close to 38 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Brad Bradford if the election were today, putting him within six points of Chow’s 43.6 per cent.
This represents a substantial increase from a previous poll conducted in February, in which Bradford stood at 17 per cent. The February poll also included former mayor John Tory, before it was confirmed he would not run.
Meanwhile, when respondents who indicated they wouldn’t vote for either of the two frontrunners were asked who they would support in a forced two-way race between Chow and Bradford, Bradford received support from 51.9 per cent, compared with Olivia Chow’s 48.1 per cent.
These latest figures suggest that Bradford is a serious contender against Chow, who was elected as the 66th mayor of Toronto in 2023.
Other findings that point to an uncertain re-election for Chow include 60 per cent of respondents saying that the City of Toronto is on the wrong track, while 41 per cent said they approve of the current mayor, compared to 55 per cent who disapprove.
The survey also charted the top issues among voters, which include traffic and congestion (27.3 per cent), affordability (25.8 per cent) and crime and safety (23.5 per cent).
Bradford, a city councillor from Toronto’s east end, previously spoke to National Post about his campaign priorities, which include congestion, the cost of living, crime, and antisemitism.
“We have all of the ingredients to make this one of the best cities in the world — the best city to raise a family, to build a business and unlock our potential,” he said. “But right now we’re falling down on those basic things, that really play a big role in our quality of life. I want this to be a city that we can be proud of again.”
He also criticized Chow’s decision not to sit on the police board and her declaration of a “genocide in Gaza” last year, as well as the 25 per cent increase in property tax over this course of council.
Meanwhile, Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research, said the latest survey suggests “the mayoral election contest in Toronto is shaping up to be more interesting than expected.”
“While Olivia Chow leads by almost six and has a ceiling close to 49 per cent, a near equal number of voters say they will definitely not vote for her,” he said. “Bradford has a lower ceiling currently, with just 45 per cent saying they would definitely vote for him or consider it, but only a quarter of residents say they will definitely not vote for him.”
He added: “That differential may change in time, but it should be concerning to the mayor. With the top issues that residents cited and the approvals at this level, the mayor will have to work hard for her re-election chances.”
Mainstreet Research’s findings are based on results of a survey conducted June 12-18, 2026, among a sample of 1,157 adults living in Toronto. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.9 per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level.
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