Canada vs. South Africa Predictions: Best Bets for the World Cup Round of 32

The new and expanded World Cup knockout phase is upon us.

Canada and South Africa get us started in the round of 32 on Sunday. Here are our best bets for the encounter.

Match Result and Total Goals

Canada dodged a bullet when South Africa bested South Korea to finish second in the group, avoiding the spectre of a fiercely pro-Korean crowd for Sunday’s clash in Los Angeles, a city with the largest Korean population outside of Korea.

Even so, this is a game that comes with complications for Jesse Marsch’s group.

Hugo Broos’ Bafana Bafana play a pretty deep-lying style of football reminiscent of a previous era of the game. That’s a little bit of a problem for a Canada side that often relies on pressure and transition to create opportunities.

South Africa can definitely keep this thing close. And since 1982 — when the World Cup first expanded beyond 16 teams — knockout phase matches have finished 90 minutes level about 30% of the time.

But South Africa is also limited going forward, so a higher-scoring draw here is pretty unlikely

Leverage that with a single-game parlay on the match result, backing a 90-minute draw with fewer than 2.5 goals at +320 odds and an implied 23.8% probability.

Draw and total under 2.5 goals (+320, theScore Bet)

First Half Total Goals

Neither of these teams have been quick starters.

Canada only scored before halftime in one of its three group matches. Both South African goals this tournament came after the break. And this match is likely to be more cautious in the opening stages than any of these teams’ group encounters

Given that reality, backing a scoreless first half at +178 odds and an implied 36% probability is a pretty sound wager and worth a little bit of risk.

First-half total under 0.5 goals (+178, FanDuel)

Number of Team Goals

So we’ve just spent a bunch of time talking about why you shouldn’t expect a lot of goals in this one. Still, oddly enough, oddsmakers may also be overrating the possibility of a full-time shutout of South Africa in particular.

Yes, Bafana Bafana are pretty challenged up front. But by the same token, Canada’s weak spot is at the back. Maxime Crepeau is not a plus-level goalkeeper at the international level. And the back line is shaky with Alphonso Davies potentially still out and Moise Bombito freshly returned from injury.

There’s probably a better chance that South Africa find a way to grind out one goal in this one than oddsmakers rate, and you can leverage that reality by backing them to score exactly one.

At +150 odds and an implied 40% probability, it’s a wager that has cashed 50% of the time between these sides at this World Cup.

South Africa to score exactly 1 goal (+150, FanDuel)