France vs. England Best Bets: Three Picks for the World Cup Third-Place Match

It’s not where either team wanted to be, but France and England will play in the World Cup third-place game on Saturday in Miami Gardens, Fla.

Over the course of World Cup history, the third-place match has unique dynamics that bettors can leverage to their advantage.

Let’s take a look at our three best bets for the encounter.

First-half Total

One unique aspect of this fixture is that enthusiasm and urgency often peak earlier in the encounter.

And that opens up arguably the best wagering opportunity here on a high first-half total.

Since the tournament expanded for the first time in 1982, the first-half total has gone over 2.5 goals on six of 11 occasions, and it has landed exactly on two goals twice.

The wager here is then on an Asian first-half total over 2.0 goals at +270 odds and an implied 27% probability. The bet is void if the total lands exactly on two.

Asian Total: Over 2.0 goals (+270, Parx)

Goal Bands

Goals generally come a lot more freely in the third-place encounter, and the betting line on the total has adjusted as such, with wagers on the teams combining for four or more at almost even money.

As can happen in international football, that creates a wagering opportunity not on one side of the distribution curve, but in the middle.

Since the first World Cup expansion in 1982, goals have flowed freely in this encounter, but not that freely. The total has never gone above five in 90 minutes. (France required extra time to defeat Belgium 4-2 in 1986).

Given that trend, the best 90-minute totals wager is a 3-5 goal band bet. With -130 odds and an implied 56.5% probability, it has cashed on nine of those 11 occasions since 182.

Goal bands: 3-5 total goals (-130, BetMGM)

Money Line

The money line draw rarely carries value in the third-place match, which has finished level after 90 minutes only once.

And when you’re trying to decide who to back in a situation like this, motivation matters as much as talent.

The French have the edge in both. Les Bleus will arguably be the side with more to prove after a 2-0 semifinal loss to Spain. Kylian Mbappe called his team’s performance unworthy of a World Cup semifinal. And while French manager Didier Deschamps is imperfect, he is also deeply beloved by most of his players. It’s his last match at the helm, and Les Bleus should be motivated to try and give him a proper sendoff.

Meanwhile, the English will likely feel more rattled by the nature of their defeat to Argentina, letting a late lead slip from their grasp. There are signs of friction between German manager Thomas Tuchel and some of their stars. And if this becomes a battle of reserves versus reserves — as third-place games often are — then France’s talent advantage becomes even greater.

So while it might seem high at first, the -107 odds on the French money line may actually represent a bargain.

Money Line: France (-107, BetRivers)