Trade Deadline Outlook: Detroit Tigers

There’s a reason we saved the Tigers for last in this series. On paper, they look like one of the better teams in a wide-open American League. Entering the season, ZiPS saw the Tigers as the favorites in the AL Central, projecting them for 86 wins. To this point, their +28 run differential suggests they should be playing at an 86-win pace, according to Pythagorean winning percentage. The playoff odds from both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus are also operating under the assumption that Detroit will play at an 86-win pace for the rest of the season. In other words, this looked like a playoff-caliber team at the beginning of the year. Over the past four months, they’ve scored and prevented runs at the pace of a playoff-caliber team. The projection systems remain convinced the Tigers are as strong as ever.

Yet, a week from the trade deadline, the Tigers are 50-56. They would have to sweep both of their next two series to be at .500 on deadline day. They’re only six games back in their division and 3.5 games back from a Wild Card spot, but several other teams are standing in their way. Their postseason chances sit at 32.6% on FanGraphs and 28.7% on Baseball Prospectus. Those aren’t insurmountable odds, but the math says you’d have better luck betting on a coin flip than Tigers POBO Scott Harris would have betting on his team to make the playoffs.

Of course, Detroit knows as well as anyone how much can change over the final months of the season. In 2024, the Tigers pulled off an incredible comeback. Their FanGraphs playoff probability was at 1% on deadline day. Two months later, they clinched a Wild Card berth. The next year, they had to watch the Guardians pull off an equally remarkable feat to steal the AL Central crown. Would the Tigers really give up now with their odds around one-in-three?

One reason they might think about it is that they’re sitting on one of the most valuable rental chips in trade deadline history. Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball and a free agent at the end of the season. It’s unlikely he’ll re-sign with Detroit. So, Harris has to determine if he should make one last run at a World Series with Skubal leading the charge or if he’d rather trade the two-time Cy Young winner for a package of players that can help the team compete in the future. And the hard decisions don’t end there.

Keeping Skubal doesn’t mean the Tigers won’t be selling. Trading him doesn’t mean they won’t be buying. Indeed, Harris and the Tigers have four distinct paths forward. They could go all in. They could throw in the towel. But they could also cash in on Skubal’s trade value without completely punting on 2026. Finally, they could keep Skubal but trade other, less impactful veterans to try to get under the luxury tax.

With all of those options to consider, it’s not so easy to sort this team into “buy mode” or “sell mode.” However, let’s start by talking about the major league pieces the Tigers might trade. Considering their sub-.500 record and their payroll that’s just above the first CBT threshold, at least some degree of selling is likely to take place.

Record: 50-56 (32.6% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)

To find the rest of our Trade Deadline Outlook series, check out this post.

Sell Mode

Potential Impending Free Agents: Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Gleyber Torres, Jack Flaherty, Kenley Jansen (club option), Drew Anderson (club option), Jake Rogers, Justin Verlander

Controllable Trade Candidates: Kyle Finnegan, Will Vest, Zach McKinstry, Matt Vierling, Spencer Torkelson

Underwater Contracts: Javier Báez

The Skubal of It All

It isn’t often that a pitcher like Skubal is traded at the deadline. What little precedent there is shows why the Tigers could command a bounty for their ace. There was Max Scherzer to the Dodgers in 2021. David Price to the Blue Jays in 2015. Cliff Lee to the Rangers in 2010 and the Phillies in 2009. CC Sabathia to the Brewers in 2008. None of those Cy Young winners were cheap to acquire, but every one of those trades worked out for the teams that acquired them. The Dodgers won what was then a franchise-record 106 games. The Blue Jays claimed their first division title of the Wild Card era. The Rangers made it to the World Series for the first time in their history. The Phillies won a second NL pennant in a row. The Brewers ended a 26-year playoff drought. Each of those pitchers was instrumental in his new team’s success, and Skubal is just as dominant today as any of those pitchers at the time they were traded.

So far, the Astros, Rays, and Brewers have been publicly linked to Skubal, but every serious contender should be giving the Tigers a call. The Cubs, Braves, and Diamondbacks all need starting pitching. The Dodgers, Yankees, or Phillies could look to build a super-rotation. Never count the Padres out when it comes to a major trade. Even the Mariners, with their well-known surplus of starters, shouldn’t be overlooked. Skubal is just that good.

This is why Scott Harris is facing such a difficult decision. If he holds on to Skubal and Detroit misses the playoffs anyway, he’ll have lost the chance to bring back a franchise-altering return. Even if the Tigers make it to October, it’s worth wondering how far they’d have to advance before keeping Skubal will have been worth it. Would a third straight ALDS exit be good enough?