Adam Chernoff’s CFL picks: Toronto Argonauts-Saskatchewan Roughriders total

Courtesy: Saskatchewan Roughriders.

Week 3 was another clean sweep on point spreads and totals, bringing the season record for readers to 7-1 on sides and totals, and 0-1 on props.

Before the picks this week, a couple of notes on the historic shift we’re seeing across the league.

All four totals this week are 55.5 or higher, with an average of 56.5 — five points higher than the average total last season. From a pre-game expectation, the betting market expects more points scored in this four-game slate than in any four-game slate in league history.

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The rule changes have altered pace across the league. Games are averaging six percent more offensive snaps. On its own, the increased snap rate is not enough to be worth five points. Quarterback play is fuel on the fire. Yards per play across the league is up 11 percent on top of the pace.

So what does this mean?

Offences are playing faster than ever and gaining more yards per play than ever, but what is interesting is the value of the yards gained relative to points has not spiked. Yards per point is only up two percent. This means luck and timely scoring via explosive plays and red-zone conversions have been higher than normal — not something that is typically sustainable as a league long-term.

Are we destined for totals of 60, 61, 62? I don’t think so, but the days of 49 and 50 are behind us due to the change in pace. I believe we’ll see the league live in this 55 to 57 total range for a while.

Toronto Argonauts-Saskatchewan Roughriders over 57

It’s one and done for me this week. This game has a couple of my favourite angles clashing with each other and is a must-bet. I’ve talked every week about the Roughriders defence not being the same unit it was last year. This team is an over.

Veterans are gone, and they are now playing without their leader Rolan Milligan Jr. due to injury. They’ve conceded 7.3 yards per play to a Lions team down a bunch of receivers and the run-heavy Stampeders. Now they face Chad Kelly and an Argonauts offence loaded with receiver talent that just averaged 13.3 yards per pass last week.

I believe this Argonauts offence is underrated with its new play-caller, Mike Miller, and has the potential to be the best in the league as Kelly trends back to form. Trevor Harris cannot miss at the moment, and he looked impressive against a Stamps defence with key guys back. Without running back A.J. Ouellette in the lineup, I expect the pass rate to be higher.

I think this game is wide open, with both sides getting into a shootout.

Adam Chernoff has been betting on sports and bookmaking for the past 17 years. While he is known across the industry for NFL expertise, he bets on CFL from his home in Saskatoon during the summer.

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